09.12.2025 12:16
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) shared data regarding the fertility rate, which President Erdoğan warned about by stating, "We are currently experiencing a disaster." According to the data, Turkey's total fertility rate was 2.38 children in 2001, but it has been on a continuous decline since 2014. TÜİK Deputy President Furkan Metin stated, "If the decline in fertility continues in this way, our median age could rise above 45 in approximately 40 years."
The significant slowdown in Turkey's population growth rate in recent years raises concerns about potential deep and lasting changes in the country's demographic structure.
Experts argue that the decline in fertility rates will not only slow population growth in the long term but may also lead to numerous issues such as a decrease in the workforce, increased burden on the social security system, and rising health and care expenses.
ERDOĞAN SAID "WE ARE EXPERIENCING A DISASTER"
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a statement at the Family and Culture-Art Symposium he attended, highlighted the fertility rate, stating that the population growth rate has decreased, and said, "The total fertility rate measured last year was 1.48. We are currently experiencing a disaster."
FERTILITY RATE HAS CONTINUOUSLY DECLINED SINCE 2014
According to a study conducted by TÜİK, the "total fertility rate" was 2.38 children in 2001 but has been on a continuous decline since 2014. In this context, the figure, which was 2.19 in 2014, dropped to 2.16 in 2015, 2.11 in 2016, 2.8 in 2017, and down to 2 in 2018.
Since 2018, the total fertility rate has remained below 2. In 2019, the fertility rate was 1.89, followed by 1.77 in 2020, 1.71 in 2021, 1.63 in 2022, 1.51 in 2023, and finally 1.48 in 2024. This situation indicates that the population renewal level of 2.1 has not been reached.
Experts warn that if this trend continues, Turkey may fall below the EU average.
Evaluating this transformation Turkey is experiencing, TÜİK Deputy President Furkan Metin stated that the fertility rate has dropped to 1.4, reaching a "high alert" level.
Metin emphasized that Turkey has been classified as a "very old country" as of last year, noting that the elderly population rate could exceed 25% in the next 25 years.
"TURKEY WAS LIKE A 20-YEAR-OLD YOUNG PERSON IN THE 1990s"
Pointing out that the average age has rapidly increased in parallel with this decline, Metin stated, "Turkey was like a 20-year-old young person in the 1990s. If the decline in fertility continues in this way, our median age could exceed 45 in about 40 years. The energy of a 45-year-old Turkey will not be the same as that of Turkey in its 20s and 25s in the 1990s."
Metin noted that a very serious population crisis is currently being experienced, stating that if the decline in fertility continues for another 10 years, it will lead to an irreversible path.
He mentioned that the increase in the elderly population rate could also bring socio-economic problems, stating that the social security system cannot continue in its current form.
"TURKEY IS FIRST IN CESAREAN BIRTH RATES"
Metin stated, "Turkey ranks first in the world in cesarean birth rates. People are marrying later and are having children through cesarean sections, making it difficult for them to have more than 2 or 3 children even if they desire to."
He warned that those who have only one child or remain unmarried will face loneliness in the future, adding:
"We will start to see the problems related to aging that many countries in Europe are experiencing in Turkey. Currently, in every 5 households we knock on, 1 has someone living alone. Among those living alone, 35% are women over 55. Therefore, the importance of family becomes apparent in later ages. However, the regret of having children at older ages does not help. Unfortunately, as a country, we are currently missing this threshold."
"Turkey is increasingly becoming an aging country."
"TURKEY IS BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY AGING COUNTRY"
Prof. Dr. Cemalettin Şahin, Dean of the Naval Academy of the National Defense University (MSÜ), stated that the population crisis in the country is not new and has been ongoing for the last 20 years.
Recalling that after the declaration of the Republic, state policies aimed to increase the population, Şahin noted, "Atatürk had a dream of a 100 million Turkey. These are present in memoirs. With a provision of the Public Health Law enacted in 1930, mothers with 6 or more children were awarded medals and provided with financial assistance. Additionally, arbitrary abortions were banned. Thus, some success was achieved."
Şahin emphasized that campaigns were initiated through newspapers to reduce the population towards the end of the 1950s, stating, "Foundations and associations from outside also intervened in this campaign. There were efforts to plan Turkey's population. A report was prepared for the Ministry of Health in 1963, and two years later, the Population Planning Law was enacted. All means were used to reduce Turkey's population."
"A COMPREHENSIVE MOBILIZATION IS NEEDED"
Şahin stated that new regulations are needed in population planning, saying, "Housing architecture should be re-evaluated. 1+1 and 2+1 apartments are almost like prisons for children. Our housing culture needs to change." He added, "The duration of education needs to be shortened. We need to revisit education."
He expressed that there is a prejudice among the public that the population is not increasing due to economic concerns, stating, "This is not true. When we say this, they react. If that were the case, the populations of Sweden, Norway, England, and Germany would be increasing. Currently, the populations of wealthy countries are not increasing. This is a cultural issue. We are not saying let’s multiply endlessly. Right now, Turkey is increasingly becoming an aging country. Today, Turkey is unfortunately deprived of the human power to harvest its own hazelnuts, cotton, and tea. Therefore, the future does not look very bright; a comprehensive mobilization is needed."