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In global markets, a mixed trend is emerging ahead of the monetary policy decisions to be made by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) this evening. While it is thought that the fight against inflation is nearing its end worldwide, signals from macroeconomic data are fueling concerns that inflationary pressures may continue. EXPECTATION OF A 25 BASIS POINT CUT DOMINATESWith the Fed expected to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points today, signals from the policy statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's verbal guidance are anticipated to provide clues about future monetary policy. Pricing in the money markets indicates that the Fed may implement two rate cuts next year, while concerns that the signals from the Fed may contradict the economic policies promised by Donald Trump, who was elected president in the U.S., are also dampening risk appetite. MARKET ACTIVE DESPITE INFLATIONOn the macroeconomic data front, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.7% month-on-month in November, exceeding market expectations. Analysts noted that the data shows U.S. consumers continue to remain resilient despite the Fed's restrictive monetary policy and inflation above the target. Meanwhile, industrial production in the country recorded a 0.1% decline month-on-month in November, contrary to expectations of an increase. The capacity utilization rate in the U.S. also fell by 0.2 percentage points to 76.8% during the same period. COMMODITIES UNDER RISKMeanwhile, international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings reported that declining demand due to planned tariffs by the U.S. and possible countermeasures from affected countries is the most significant risk for global commodity markets. With these developments, bond markets showed a buying trend yesterday ahead of today's Fed decisions, while the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds fell to 4.40%, and the dollar index dropped to 106.9. BITCOIN PULLED BACK AFTER RECORDThe price of gold per ounce fell by 0.4% yesterday, while it is trading at $2,443 today with a sideways trend. The price of Brent crude oil also fell to $73 amid concerns about declining demand in China. Bitcoin, which has maintained an upward trend after the elections in the U.S., stabilized at $103,500 after testing above $108,000 ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision. On the corporate side, following the news from the Japanese Nikkei newspaper that automobile manufacturers Nissan and Honda plan to start merger talks to better compete in the rapidly changing automotive industry, Honda's shares traded in the U.S. saw an increase. STOCK MARKETS QUITE ACTIVEOn the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.39%, the Nasdaq index by 0.32%, and the Dow Jones index by 0.61%. The Dow Jones index completed its ninth consecutive day with a loss. In the U.S., index futures started the new day with a positive trend. In European stock markets, a negative trend prevailed yesterday, except for France, while in Germany, with the government's collapse leading to a new election period, political uncertainties increased in the region, and today’s inflation data to be announced in the Eurozone and the UK has become the focus of investors. EUROPE AWAITS ECBYesterday, the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) announced the results of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for December, which measures the expectations of institutional investors and analysts for the next six months. Accordingly, the index increased by 8.3 points in December compared to the previous month. The index, which was 7.4 points in November, rose to 15.7 this month. Market expectations were for the index to decrease to 6.9 in December. Analysts noted that investor confidence in Germany has risen above expectations due to the upcoming early elections in February and increasing expectations for further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) next year. On the other hand, the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England (BoE) to be announced tomorrow are also on investors' radar, with clues about the bank's future steps expected from the statements of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey after the meeting. With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell by 0.81%, the DAX 40 index in Germany by 0.33%, and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy by 1.22%, while the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.12%. In Europe, index futures started the new day with a mixed trend. ASIAN MARKETS ALSO EYE FEDIn Asia, while steps to be taken by the Fed in its monetary policy are awaited, a positive trend is emerging, except for Japan. In the region, as investors avoid taking risks ahead of the monetary policy decisions to be announced by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tomorrow, selling pressure has increased, while the monetary policy signals to be taken in the BoJ's interest rate decision are at the forefront of investors' focus. Predictions that the Bank will not change its policy rate remain strong in the pricing of money markets. According to the data announced today in the region, Japan's exports increased by 3.8% in November, exceeding expectations, while imports decreased by 3.8%, falling more than forecasts. Additionally, the country recorded a trade deficit of 117.6 billion yen in November. Meanwhile, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong stated that they expect inflation to remain stable over the next two years. With these developments, as the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.6% near the close, the Shanghai Composite Index in China rose by 0.8%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong by 0.9%, and the Kospi index in South Korea by 1.2%. DOMESTIC MARKET IN WAITINGDomestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which moved in an upward trend yesterday, completed the day with a gain of 0.14%, finishing at 10,011.27 points. The Dollar/TL closed at 33.9870 with a decrease of 0.1% yesterday, while it is trading at 35.0140 at the opening of the interbank market today. Analysts stated that today, domestic housing sales statistics and short-term external debt statistics will be followed, while abroad, in addition to the Fed's interest rate decision, inflation in the Eurozone and the UK, the U.S. current account balance, housing starts, and building permits will be monitored, expressing that technically, resistance levels for the BIST 100 index are at 10,200 and 10,250 points, while support levels are at 9,900 and 9,850 points. DATA TO BE ANNOUNCED TODAY IN MARKETS:13:00 Eurozone, November Consumer Price Index (CPI) 15:00 U.S., weekly mortgage applications 16:30 U.S., November housing starts 16:30 U.S., November building permits 16:30 U.S., Q3 current account balance 22:00 U.S., Fed's interest rate decision 22:30 U.S., Fed Chairman Powell's press conference
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