12.11.2026 10:52
Millions of retirees have their eyes on the salary increase to be made in January 2027. According to calculations based on inflation expectations, the lowest pension is projected to rise to 26,053 lira, while it has been calculated that if a 20 percent welfare share is added, this amount could rise to as much as 31,263 lira.
The countdown continues for the raise to be made to retirement pensions in January 2027. While inflation data for the second half of the year are influential in determining the raise rate, the possibilities of a welfare share and a flat-rate increase also maintain their place on the agenda. Calculations based on four-month inflation data and expectations for the remaining two months of the year have revealed different raise scenarios for the lowest retirement pension.
FOUR-MONTH INFLATION DIFFERENCE IS 8.28 PERCENT
In calculations regarding the January raise, the four-month inflation difference came out at 8.28 percent. It is assessed that, by also taking into account the inflation rates forecast in the Central Bank Market Participants Survey as 1.18 percent for November and 0.97 percent for December, the six-month total increase could reach 10.62 percent.
LOWEST RETIREMENT PENSION COULD RISE TO 26,053 LIRA
The lowest retirement pension, currently applied as 23,552 lira, is expected to rise by approximately 2,501 lira under the 10.62 percent increase scenario. If this calculation materializes, the lowest monthly pension will reach 26,053 lira. However, this amount does not yet mean a finalized raise. After the inflation data for November and December are announced, the increase rate to be applied in January will become clear.
IF A WELFARE SHARE IS ADDED, HOW MUCH WILL PENSIONS BE?
The possibility of granting a welfare share in addition to the inflation difference increases retirees' pension expectations. If welfare shares at different rates are added on top of the 10.62 percent inflation increase, the scenarios that emerge for the lowest retirement pension are as follows:
- Only a 10.62 percent inflation increase: 26,053 TL
- 5 percent welfare share: 27,355 TL
- 10 percent welfare share: 28,658 TL
- 15 percent welfare share: 29,960 TL
- 20 percent welfare share: 31,263 TL
WITH A 20 PERCENT WELFARE SHARE, THE 31 THOUSAND LIRA THRESHOLD IS EXCEEDED
According to the calculations, if a 5 percent welfare share is added to the inflation increase, the lowest retirement pension rises to 27,355 lira. If the welfare share is 10 percent, the monthly pension reaches 28,658 lira, and if it is 15 percent, it reaches 29,960 lira; in the 20 percent scenario, it rises to as much as 31,263 lira. Thus, in the highest welfare share scenario, an increase of approximately 7,711 lira emerges compared with the current lowest pension of 23,552 lira.
TWO MONTHS OF DATA ARE AWAITED FOR THE FINAL RAISE
For the increase to be made to retirement pensions to be finalized, the inflation figures for November and December need to be announced. In addition, possible decisions by the government regarding a welfare share or a flat-rate raise may also affect the amount retirees will receive.
On the other hand, the calculations reflect hypothetical scenarios created based on the lowest retirement pension. It is noted that the increase to the lowest pension may also require separate legal regulation, while no finalized rate regarding the welfare share is yet available.