The government is announcing different figures regarding economic growth.

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The Medium-Term Program, which presents the 3-year roadmap of the economy, has been on the agenda since September 6, 2023. Different statements are coming from the government regarding key macroeconomic targets such as inflation, employment, and growth until 2026. The evaluations made within the scope of the Medium-Term Program regarding inflation, interest rates, unemployment, and economic growth are confusing.

HAVE THE TARGETS CHANGED IN THE MEDIUM-TERM PROGRAM?

The program covering the 3-year period from 2023 to 2026 had four main objectives: "Healing the wounds of disasters; reducing inflation to single digits; maintaining growth and employment in terms of investment, employment, production, and exports; and strengthening social justice and welfare."

The first major debate regarding the medium-term program occurred over the growth forecast for 2023. The annual growth, previously estimated at 5%, was revised down to 4.4% with the announcement of the MTP. President Erdoğan, who announced his full support for the program, emphasized that while the government would take tightening steps to combat inflation, it would not abandon the priority of growth.

DIFFERENT STATEMENTS ON GROWTH

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek, Central Bank President Fatih Karahan, and the cabinet attended the introduction meeting of the new MTP on September 5. According to the new MTP, the growth forecast was reduced from 4% to 3.5%. Similarly, the expected economic growth for 2025 was also revised down from 4.5% to 4%. This change in the growth forecast once again caused confusion with President Erdoğan's latest statement.

ERDOĞAN INDICATED HIGHER GROWTH BUT...

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delivered the opening speech of the Investment Advisory Council held at the Dolmabahçe Working Office. The most critical part of his speech was his statements that "the Medium-Term Program aims for annual growth above 5%." Erdoğan's targeting of above 5% for the growth forecast, which was revised down from 5% to 3.5% in the last year, raised the question, "Aren't the forecasts in the economic program holding up?"

OECD RAISED ITS FORECAST FOR 2024

On the other hand, a statement made by the OECD last week revised the 2024 Global Growth Forecast from 3.1% to 3.2%. The global growth forecast for the next year was kept unchanged at the previously announced rate of 3.2%. With this statement from the OECD, it was observed that the Turkish economy is diverging negatively from the global economy.

ŞIMŞEK: SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS TEMPORARY

Following all these developments, Mehmet Şimşek mentioned in his speech on Sunday that some might say "growth is slowing," stating, "This is a temporary slowdown. Because we are solidifying the foundations for higher, sustainable growth." He noted that when Turkey achieves its digital and green transformation, productivity, competitiveness, and growth potential will increase.