13.10.2026 06:31
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 global growth forecast from 3 percent to 3.1 percent, while lowering Turkey's growth expectation from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent. Announcing its year-end inflation forecast for Turkey as 31.2 percent, the IMF expects the economy to grow by 3.6 percent in 2027. In the report, it was warned that the war in the Middle East could negatively affect the global economy by increasing energy and food prices.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October World Economic Outlook Report, raised its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3 percent to 3.1 percent. While lowering its growth expectation for the Turkish economy from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent, the IMF announced its year-end inflation forecast as 31.2 percent. The report drew attention to the fact that the war in the Middle East and trade tensions are increasing risks to the global economy.
TURKEY'S GROWTH FORECAST REVISED DOWN
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its October World Economic Outlook Report containing current assessments of the global economy. In the report, the Turkish economy's 2026 growth forecast was revised downward.
The IMF lowered its 2026 growth expectation for Turkey, which it had announced as 2.9 percent in July, to 2.7 percent. The Turkish economy is projected to grow 3.6 percent in 2027. Thus, the growth forecast for next year was not changed.
31.2 PERCENT FORECAST FOR INFLATION
The report also included expectations regarding Turkey's inflation outlook. The IMF estimated that year-end inflation in Turkey would be 31.2 percent in 2026 and 26.5 percent in 2027.
These projections showed that inflation is expected to decline next year as well, but that price increases will continue to remain at high levels.
GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATION RAISED
Although the IMF lowered its growth expectation for Turkey, it announced a more optimistic forecast for the world economy. The Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast from 3 percent to 3.1 percent, while keeping its 2027 forecast unchanged at 3.4 percent. The report stated that despite the ongoing war in the Middle East and tensions in international trade, economic activity in the first half of 2026 performed more strongly than expected.
It was stated that investments in artificial intelligence in particular increased activity in the technology sector and supported global demand. However, it was noted that economic resilience is not evenly distributed among countries and that fragilities in the growth outlook continue.
INFLATION WILL RISE WORLDWIDE
The IMF report also shared the global inflation expectation. Due to increases in energy and food prices, inflation worldwide is expected to rise to 4.7 percent in 2026 and fall to 4.1 percent in 2027.
Growth in global trade volume is projected to slow this year and follow a more stable course next year. The report emphasized that the negative effects of trade tariffs and changes in production chains will continue to be decisive for the economic outlook.
U.S. FORECAST UNCHANGED, EXPECTATIONS CHANGED IN EUROPE
The IMF kept its 2026 growth forecast for the U.S. economy at 2.3 percent, while raising its 2027 expectation from 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent. The Euro Area's growth forecast for this year was raised from 0.9 percent to 1.1 percent. The region's 2027 growth expectation was kept at 1.2 percent.
Germany's 2026 growth forecast was raised from 0.7 percent to 1.3 percent, Italy's from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent, and Spain's from 2.1 percent to 2.5 percent. A more negative outlook was presented for France. The country's growth expectation for this year was lowered from 0.6 percent to 0.4 percent.
CHINA'S FORECAST FELL, INDIA'S ROSE
The growth expectation for China, one of the world's largest economies, was also revised downward. The IMF lowered China's 2026 growth forecast from 4.6 percent to 4.5 percent and its 2027 forecast from 4.1 percent to 4 percent.
A stronger growth was projected for India. The country's growth forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 were raised to 7 percent. Russia's economy is expected to grow 0.9 percent in both years.
CRITICAL WARNING ABOUT THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The IMF pointed out in its report that risks to the global economy are predominantly tilted to the downside. It was stated that if the war in the Middle East is prolonged or tensions in the region escalate further, new increases in energy and food prices could occur.
A warning was made that these developments could reaccelerate inflation, disrupt countries' fiscal balances, and suppress economic growth. The report also emphasized that the global economy's medium-term growth performance is expected to remain weak compared with historical averages.