In the survey of market participants, inflation expectations have increased.

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According to the results of the market participants survey, the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation for the current year was 44.11% in the previous survey period, while it increased to 44.81% in this survey period.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published the results of the November Market Participants Survey. The Market Participants Survey was answered by 68 participants consisting of representatives from the real sector and the financial sector, and the results were evaluated by consolidating the participants' responses.

According to the results of the survey, the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation for the current year was 44.11% in the previous survey period, while it increased to 44.81% in this survey period. The CPI expectation for 12 months later was 27.44% in the previous survey period, while it decreased to 27.20% in this survey period. The CPI expectation for 24 months later was 18.08% and 18.33% in the respective survey periods.

12 MONTH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

In the November 2024 survey period, when the probability estimates of the participants regarding 12 months later were evaluated, it was predicted that the CPI would increase in the range of 23.00 - 25.99 with a probability of 33.93%, in the range of 26.00 - 28.99 with a probability of 36.97%, and in the range of 29.00 - 31.99 with a probability of 16.94%.

According to the evaluation based on point estimates in the same survey period, it was observed that 26.98% of the participants expected an increase in the range of 23.00 - 25.99, 38.10% expected an increase in the range of 26.00 - 28.99, and 20.63% expected an increase in the range of 29.00 - 31.99.

24 MONTH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

In the November 2024 survey period, when the probability estimates of the participants regarding 24 months later were evaluated, it was predicted that the CPI would increase in the range of 14.00 - 16.99 with a probability of 20.28%, in the range of 17.00 - 19.99 with a probability of 47.20%, and in the range of 20.00 - 22.99 with a probability of 22.30%.

According to the evaluation based on point estimates in the same survey period, when the expectations for CPI inflation 24 months later were evaluated, it was observed that 17.86% of the participants expected an increase in the range of 14.00 - 16.99, 41.07% expected an increase in the range of 17.00 - 19.99, and 30.36% expected an increase in the range of 20.00 - 22.99.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS

The participants' expectations for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market and the CBRT's one-week repo auction interest rate expectation at the end of the current month remained at 50.00%, as in the previous survey period.

EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS

The participants' year-end exchange rate (USD/TRY) expectation for the current year was 36.63 TL in the previous survey period, while it decreased to 35.72 TL in this survey period. The exchange rate expectation for 12 months later was 42.73 TL in the previous survey period, while it was 42.75 TL in this survey period.

GDP GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

The participants' GDP growth expectation for 2024 remained at 3.1%, as in the previous survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2025 was 3.3% in the previous survey period, while it decreased to 3.2% in this survey period.