The possibility of a global economic crisis is being discussed in the event of Trump's election as President of the United States.

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With less than two weeks to go until the US elections, experts believe that Donald Trump's victory would be the "worst-case scenario" economically for China and European Union (EU) countries. The 60th presidential election process, set to take place on November 5 in the US, is being closely monitored worldwide.

As Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris engage in a fierce competition for the presidency, the potential victories of the candidates are expected to have different impacts on the economies. In a country that represents nearly a quarter of the global economy, current polls in 7 critical states that will determine the fate of the elections suggest that Trump is currently leading Harris by a narrow margin.

PROTECTIONIST POLICIES HAVE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED GLOBAL TRADE

Prof. Dr. Levent Aydın, a faculty member in the Department of Economics at Ankara Social Sciences University, stated that the results of the US elections could affect not only domestic economic policies but also global economic systems and trade relations. Reminding that Trump exhibited an "America First" approach during his previous presidency, Aydın emphasized that the trade war initiated with China during that period led to disruptions in global supply chains and harmed trade between the US and its allies. He noted, "Protectionist policies and high tariffs created a contraction in global trade volume while increasing uncertainty worldwide. In this election, Trump has stated that he will encourage companies to produce in the US with high tariffs and that 'tariff' is his favorite word. He will continue the policies he implemented in the previous term."

HARRIS'S ARRIVAL COULD REVITALIZE GLOBAL TRADE

Aydın mentioned that Democratic candidate Harris, as a continuation of the Biden administration, could adopt pro-free trade policies, avoid entering trade wars, and embrace a more collaborative approach in international trade. He also expressed that she would contribute to strengthening trade agreements with the EU and other strategic allies and revitalizing global trade. Aydın pointed out that the presidential candidates could be decisive regarding the monetary policies implemented by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), stating that the Trump administration might try to promote economic growth by supporting low interest rates.

STRICT MONETARY POLICY MAY CONTINUE

Recalling that the Fed has already initiated interest rate cuts, Aydın stated that the Harris administration could advocate for strict monetary policies until inflation stabilizes at around 2% by mid-2025 as part of its fight against inflation. Aydın recorded the following about the candidates' policies: While Harris aims for more sustainable global growth through green energy and international cooperation, Trump seeks to strengthen the US economy based on domestic production with a protectionist trade and fossil fuel-focused strategy. Both candidates' programs have the potential to impact the future of the global economy in areas such as global trade, energy markets, climate and environmental policies, and international cooperation.

"TRUMP'S ARRIVAL IS THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR CHINA"

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz from Bursa Uludağ University’s Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences pointed out that the policy implemented by the Fed has a global impact. Therefore, she explained that the monetary policy directed by the incoming president through the Fed would be critical, stating, "The importance of the incoming president is very significant for the whole world, especially for developing countries like ours, in terms of the effects on the policies that the Fed will implement."

TRUMP MEANS UNCERTAINTY

Eryılmaz noted that Trump's unexpected reflexes in relations with countries could create a more uncertain environment globally, and protectionist policies could become more visible. She indicated that in a scenario where Donald Trump wins, US-China relations could turn more negative both economically and politically, stating, "For China, Trump's arrival is the worst-case scenario. Harris's arrival means that the ongoing trade wars with China will continue, but one should not expect her to be as tough as Trump."

"TRUMP'S ARRIVAL COULD REDUCE EU'S EXPORTS TO THE US"

Eryılmaz recalled that Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), highlighted the effects of trade wars and tariffs on the region in recent meetings, stating, "There is a serious recession in the EU, and the region's biggest weakness is its export weakness. Exports go to both the US and China from here. Trump's arrival could directly reduce the EU's exports to the US. Indirectly, China's growth is important for the EU, as it is the EU's main export market. If the US increases tariffs on China further, China's growth could decline even more. If China grows less, the EU will export less as well. This will hit Europe from a second angle."

"IF TRUMP IS ELECTED, THE EURO MAY WEAKEN"

Eryılmaz commented that in a scenario where Trump wins, the Russia-Ukraine War could likely move towards peace, which could have positive effects on the EU economy. She also noted that compared to Harris, Trump's policies could emphasize a stronger dollar, which could lead to the weakening of the euro.