The scenario of a 40% increase in the minimum wage.

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The Minimum Wage Determination Commission is expected to hold its fourth meeting this week and determine the minimum wage during this meeting. Accordingly, if a 20% increase is made to the minimum wage starting from January 1, 2025, the new minimum wage will be 20,402 lira, and if a 40% increase is made, the minimum wage will be 23,802 lira.



Millions of workers are waiting to see how much the minimum wage will be under the shadow of increasing living costs. Three meetings have already taken place in the minimum wage marathon. The fourth meeting is expected to be held this week. It is anticipated that the new minimum wage will be determined in this meeting.

Türk-İş President Ergün Atalay announced their proposal for the 2025 minimum wage as 29,583 lira and stated that they would not sign a decision below this amount. Atalay said, "If they give this, we will sign. If they don't, we won't sign, we will be there." DİSK stated, "The poverty line should be considered as a criterion for the minimum wage increase, and assuming there are two workers in the household, the minimum wage should be at least around half of the poverty line." Although DİSK did not provide a specific figure for the minimum wage demand, based on this statement, it is estimated to be around 33,500 lira.

TİSK is expected to propose an increase of up to 30%. If the increase is made according to TİSK's expectations, the minimum wage will be 22,102 lira in 2025.

WILL THE MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE BE BASED ON REAL OR TARGET INFLATION?

There has been a public debate for some time about whether the minimum wage increase will be based on actual inflation or target inflation. Currently, the annual inflation in Turkey is 48.58%. The Central Bank of Turkey's year-end inflation forecast is 44%, with the upper band of this forecast being 46%. If the minimum wage is increased according to the actual inflation rate, it is expected to be around 44-46%. If the minimum wage is increased according to the target inflation for 2025, it is projected to be around 21-26%.

If the minimum wage is increased according to the Central Bank's 44% target, it will be 24,483 lira. Last January, it was increased by 49.11% to 17,002 lira. If a 25% increase is made in January, the new minimum wage will be 21,252 lira. When the minimum wage is increased according to the Central Bank's projected 44% target, it will reach 24,483 lira. If the Central Bank's 2025 target of a 21% increase is implemented, it will rise to 20,572 lira.

If a 26% increase, which is the upper band for 2025, occurs, it will be 21,422 lira. If a 40% increase is made, the new minimum wage will reach 23,802 lira. According to the Medium-Term Program (MTP) inflation target, if a 41.5% increase occurs, the minimum wage will exceed 24,000 lira. If the minimum wage is increased by 17.5%, which is the inflation target for 2025 in the MTP, it will rise to 19,977 lira.

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

According to possible scenarios regarding the minimum wage, the wages will be shaped as follows:

• If a 20% increase is made, the minimum wage will be 20,402 lira,



• If a 25% increase is made, the minimum wage will be 21,252 lira,



• If a 30% increase is made, the minimum wage will be 22,102 lira,



• If a 35% increase is made, the minimum wage will be 22,502 lira,



• If a 40% increase is made, the minimum wage will be 23,802 lira.

THE COMMISSION INCLUDES TÜRK-İŞ, TİSK, AND THE MINISTRY OF LABOR

In Turkey, the minimum wage is determined by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission. The commission includes representatives from the Turkish Confederation of Trade Unions (TÜRK-İŞ) representing the workers, the Turkish Confederation of Employers' Unions (TİSK) representing the employers, and representatives from the Ministry of Labor and Social Security. The commission consists of a total of 15 people, including 5 representatives from each side.