16.08.2025 21:53
Disaster Management Expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bülent Özmen stated that some faults in the Sea of Marmara have not produced earthquakes greater than 7 since 1766, and therefore are considered "seismic gaps." Özmen pointed out that there are faults in the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault that are expected to rupture, and he warned, "The fault line passing through the Gemlik Bay has also not produced a major earthquake for a long time."
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Disaster Management Expert, Associate Professor Dr. Bülent Özmen from the Department of Civil Engineering at Gazi University, made statements on the occasion of the 26th anniversary of the Marmara Earthquake on August 17, 1999.
"448 THOUSAND EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN TURKEY IN 26 YEARS"
Özmen stated, "In the 26 years since the Marmara Earthquake, 448 thousand earthquakes have occurred in Turkey." He noted that the most earthquakes occurred in 2023, 2017, 2020, and 2024, respectively. Özmen drew attention to the fact that approximately 74 thousand tremors were experienced in 2023.
"ON AVERAGE, WE ENCOUNTER A MAGNITUDE GREATER THAN 7 EVERY 6.5 YEARS"
Özmen reported that 46 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 to 6.9 occurred in the past 26 years, stating, "On average, we encounter an earthquake greater than 7 every 6.5 years. We are exposed to earthquakes greater than 6 twice a year."
Özmen mentioned that nearly 77 thousand people have lost their lives in earthquakes since 1999, and the economic loss has approached 200 billion dollars.
SILENT DANGER IN THE MARMARA SEA
Recalling that the North Anatolian Fault broke up to the coast of Yalova on August 17, Özmen stated that some faults in the Marmara Sea have not produced earthquakes greater than 7 since 1766, and therefore are considered a "seismic gap."
"AN EARTHQUAKE GREATER THAN 7 WILL SERIOUSLY AFFECT ISTANBUL"
Associate Professor Özmen emphasized that Istanbul experienced earthquakes of 5.8 in 2019 and 6.1 this year, but these did not relieve the stress on the fault line.
Özmen pointed out that there are faults in the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault that are waiting to break, stating, "A possible earthquake greater than 7 will seriously affect Istanbul. The fault line passing through the Gulf of Gemlik in the south of Marmara has not produced a major earthquake for a long time. Any possible tremor here will affect all Marmara coasts."
"STEPS TAKEN IN 26 YEARS ARE NOT ENOUGH"
Özmen indicated that many steps have been taken in legal, judicial, and technical fields over the past 26 years, but these are not sufficient, stating that the destruction and loss of life in every earthquake show that the desired level has not yet been reached in these steps. Özmen also drew attention to the importance of urban transformation.
"THE EARTHQUAKE IN SINDIRGI DID NOT ELIMINATE THE RISK IN BALIKESIR"
Özmen noted that the aftershocks of the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Sındırgı, Balıkesir, could reach magnitudes of 5.1-5.2.
Stating that there are nearly 20 active faults in the region, Özmen expressed that only a 20-kilometer section of the Simav Fault Zone broke during the tremor. Associate Professor Özmen stated, "The thought that there will no longer be an earthquake here after this earthquake is incorrect. Balıkesir, like many provinces in Turkey, carries a high earthquake risk. The fault line in Sındırgı and the North Anatolian Fault affecting Istanbul are different lines. Therefore, the earthquake risk in Istanbul is still at the same level as it was before the Sındırgı earthquake."
WHAT IS A SEISMIC GAP?
A seismic gap is a term used for areas on an active fault line where a major earthquake has not occurred for a long time, but energy accumulation continues. These areas are considered "silent" regions that carry potential earthquake risk based on past seismic movements and have a high probability of producing major earthquakes in the future.
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