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The minimum wage needs to be determined and shared with the public by December 31. There has been ongoing debate about whether the minimum wage increase will be based on year-end inflation or target inflation. Different scenarios regarding the wage increase estimates are being discussed.
In the markets, there is a strong expectation for an increase in the minimum wage in the range of 30-40%. The prevailing opinion in the business world is that the minimum wage should be raised to the level of 22-23 thousand lira. Reports from foreign institutions also indicate expectations in the range of 25-30%.
The demands of workers, employers, and government parties are shaping the commission that will determine the minimum wage for 2025. While wage increase scenarios ranging from 32.5% to 50% are on the agenda, the minimum wage is expected to be between 22,952 TL and 25,503 TL.
THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 7 MILLION MINIMUM WAGE EARNERS IN TURKEY
The figure determined by the Minimum Wage Commission directly and indirectly affects a large portion of the country. According to the Social Security Institution (SGK), 6.6 million people work for the minimum wage in Turkey. This corresponds to 40% of the workforce. In other words, 4 out of 10 people work for the minimum wage.
THE CURRENT MINIMUM WAGE IS 17,002 TL
The minimum wage is currently applied as a gross monthly amount of 20,002.50 lira for a worker, and after deductions, the net amount is 17,012.12 lira. The total cost of the minimum wage to the employer is 23,502.94 lira for one worker. Of this, 20,002.50 lira is the gross minimum wage, 3,100.39 lira is the social security premium, and 400.05 lira is the employer's unemployment insurance fund.
HERE ARE THE 3 STRONGEST SCENARIOS ON THE TABLE
At this point, scenarios come into play. If December inflation is 2%, year-end inflation will be 45.70%, if it is 2.5%, it will be 46.40%, and if it is 3%, it will be 47.20%.
Experts have presented the following three scenarios regarding the wage increase rate based on the average of targeted and realized inflation: 33.35%, 33.7%, or 34.1%.
ALL SCENARIOS RANGING FROM 32.5% TO 50%
On the other hand, it is said that the employer side will come to the table with a 32.5% increase. Here are the levels the minimum wage could reach according to the increase scenarios from 32.5% to 50%:
* 32.5%: 22,527 lira
* 35%: 22,952 lira
* 36%: 23,122 lira
* 37%: 23,292 lira
* 38%: 23,462 lira
* 39%: 23,632 lira
* 40%: 23,802 lira
* 41%: 23,973 lira
* 42%: 24,143 lira
* 43%: 23,313 lira
* 44%: 24,483 lira
* 45%: 24,653 lira.
* 46%: 24,823 lira
* 47%: 24,993 lira
* 48%: 25,163 lira
* 49%: 25,333 lira
* 50%: 25,503 lira.
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