21.08.2026 07:31
While the US military victory promise against Iran remains unfulfilled six months later, the Trump administration has decided to expand economic sanctions. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that countries doing business with Iran will face severe consequences. However, experts note that Iran has been successful in evading sanctions and that the effectiveness of this new strategy is uncertain. The reaction of countries such as China and Turkey will be critical.
About six months after US President Donald Trump promised a quick victory against Iran, the conflict appears to have reached a stalemate. The possibility of a military victory or a negotiated solution is increasingly fading.
Seeking to break the deadlock, Trump declared an "economic extraction day," where any country doing business with Iran would face "very heavy" economic consequences. However, Iran has long been facing sanctions. As the conflict drags on, Tehran's capacity to withstand economic pressure and adapt to severe economic and military conditions is also drawing attention.
At this point, the most important question for the US is whether more sanctions will yield results in an environment where other strategies have failed.
DETAILS OF NEW SANCTIONS TO BE ANNOUNCED ON AUGUST 24
The precise mechanisms of the new US economic pressure campaign have not yet been clarified. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he would announce details regarding these mechanisms at a press conference on August 24.
In an interview with CNBC, Bessent clearly stated that the US is prepared to respond to any country it believes is providing economic support to Iran, regardless of friend or foe.
"You are either with us or against us," Bessent said, adding that the US Treasury and government would use all their power to impose sanctions on countries that continue to trade with Iran, transfer money, buy oil, or transfer money via sea routes.
VANCE: ECONOMIC PRESSURE IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE TOOL
Vice President JD Vance described the sanctions as a "new phase" of the conflict. Vance stated that economic pressure is the "most effective" tool at the US's disposal.
Vance said, "They will try to apply economic pressure on us, but the reality over the last few weeks is that they have felt much more pressure than we have."
Vance stated, "We will continue to do this because we believe it is the best way to achieve our ultimate goal."
IRAN HAS FACED US SANCTIONS FOR YEARS
Iran has faced major US sanctions since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
The economic pressure campaign intensified further following the first Trump administration's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 between world powers and Iran to limit Iran's nuclear program.
Within the scope of the current conflict, the US administration has also announced "Operation Economic Fury," a two-pronged economic campaign combining sanctions coordinated by the US Treasury targeting the financial flows of the Iranian regime with a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
EXPERTS: US TESTING A NEW PRESSURE TOOL
Imran Bayoumi, a geostrategy expert and former defense department policy advisor at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC, said the latest announcement could be a result of growing frustration that other options have not produced the results Trump wanted.
Bayoumi said, "This is an indication that the US is almost stuck in this war. It is another one of the attempts to apply economic pressure."
Bayoumi stated, "This is just another tool the US is using. We haven't seen the administration lay out a clear strategy regarding military or economic means. The question of what the US is trying to achieve remains unanswered."
THIRD COUNTRIES AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE CROSSHAIRS
Michael Parker, who has eight years of experience at the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and is an expert on economic sanctions, said the new strategy could be an attempt to "expand the economic impact area" of sanctions by targeting third countries that continue to trade with Iran but whose economies are dependent on the US dollar.
Parker said, "So far, the US has largely used the threat of these secondary sanctions against foreign financial institutions to encourage compliance with sanctions policy."
However, Parker noted that targeting actors tied to the US dollar that also maintain relations with Iran is a card that has not yet been fully played.
Parker cited foreign financial institutions that help Iran evade sanctions or transfer money to the Iranian Treasury as examples.
IRAN FINDS NEW WAYS TO CIRCUMVENT SANCTIONS
While it remains unclear how Iran will respond to the new economic pressure steps, sanctions experts note that Tehran has so far been highly successful in using alternative channels to circumvent sanctions.
Iran's methods include using "ghost fleet" ships carrying oil and utilizing new trade channels not covered by US sanctions.
Mohammed Hammouda, export control and sanctions manager at the London Stock Exchange, stated that Iran adapts quickly to sanctions, saying, "New names are constantly emerging because Iran adapts very quickly. Whatever sanctions you impose, they find a new way."
Hammouda noted that sanctions remain on paper, but the real struggle is carried out behind the scenes.
"There are teams around the world trying to enforce sanctions and identify relevant parties, so Iran also needs to try to adapt," he stated.
STANCE OF TURKEY, IRAQ, AND CHINA WILL BE DECISIVE
The effectiveness of the new sanctions will largely depend on the response of countries that could be targeted. Among these countries are US allies Turkey and Iraq, as well as potentially China.
Parker noted that the capacity to evade sanctions does not depend solely on Iran's own efforts.
Parker said, "Iran's ability to evade or escape sanctions depends largely on the willingness of other countries and financial institutions to grant Iran access to the official banking system."
According to Parker, the power of sanctions depends on the willingness of target countries to comply with US foreign policy goals or the likelihood of facing heavy sanctions on trade conducted through the US dollar.
UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER CHINA WILL COMPLY WITH SANCTIONS
Some experts question the extent to which target countries will comply with the US's new pressure campaign.
Bayoumi said, "For example, I doubt China will go along with this. All these states have managed to balance their own interests with the Trump administration."
Bayoumi stated, "The main point is that this is just another tool. But the broader strategy question remains. Without that question, I am not sure this will change anything in the long run."