Trump's Iran plan has been deciphered; the orders he may give as soon as he takes office could create chaos.

The UK-based Financial Times reported that Donald Trump, who was re-elected president on November 5, will revive his "maximum pressure" policy aimed at undermining Iran's regional sponsors and its nuclear weapons development capabilities. The newspaper states that Trump's foreign policy team plans to increase sanctions against Tehran with his return to the White House in January, but experts assess that the likelihood of success for this approach is low.

THE NEW PRESIDENT'S FIRST ORDER WILL BE SANCTIONS ON IRAN

According to the British publication, Iran's crude oil exports rose from 400,000 barrels per day in 2020 to 1.5 million barrels by 2024. Almost all of this export is directed to China. Trump's transition team is preparing executive orders to impose stricter sanctions on Iran on the new president's first day. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and former energy advisor, predicts that Iran's oil exports could drop back to 400,000 barrels. It is stated that Iran's economy is already fragile and such sanctions would put the country in an even more difficult situation.

THE FOREIGN POLICY TEAM ALSO SUPPORTS SANCTIONS

Trump's advisors want the new president to act quickly on Iran. The new leader is expected to clearly state that he will seriously enforce Iran sanctions. Figures from Trump's foreign policy team, such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, advocate for a tough approach against Iran. In a speech at an Atlantic Council event in January, Waltz emphasized that Iran's economy should return to its state from four years ago. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on Trump's team not to try the maximum pressure policy again. In a statement on the social media platform X, Araghchi said, "The Maximum Pressure 2.0 attempt will only result in Maximum Defeat 2.0."

PEZESHKIAN'S CONDITION FOR NEGOTIATION

Iran's new administration aims to lift sanctions to revive nuclear tensions with the West and alleviate economic difficulties. Iran's reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian expressed the intention to re-establish relations with the West and reach a nuclear agreement. Following talks with Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's nuclear oversight body, Iran stated, "We are willing to negotiate in line with our national interests and inalienable rights, but we are not ready to negotiate under pressure and intimidation."

KHAMENEI SEES LOW PROBABILITY FOR NUCLEAR AND REGIONAL AGREEMENT

Even if both sides are willing to negotiate, the chances of progress are considered low. Karim Sadjadpour, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that Iran's high-level leader Ayatollah Khamenei sees a low probability of reaching a nuclear or regional agreement following Trump's assassination of Qassem Soleimani. The Trump administration's tough policies towards Iran complicate the stability of relations between the two countries. A nuclear or regional agreement between the US and Iran is not expected. Additionally, the Trump administration's hardline approach towards Iran casts uncertainty on the future of long-term relations between the two countries.

The Trump administration imposed hundreds of sanctions on Iran by abandoning the 2015 nuclear agreement during its first term. Following these sanctions, it was observed that Iran increased its nuclear activities and enriched uranium close to weapon levels. During the Biden administration, sanctions continued, but strict measures for reviving the nuclear agreement and alleviating crises were not implemented.