Two different predictions have emerged for the lowest pension amount!

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November 4, 2025, is an important date for pensioners' salaries. After the inflation figures for October are announced, the last three data points needed to determine the year-end salary increase will be the inflation rates for November and December.

HOW MUCH WILL THE INFLATION DIFFERENCE FOR PENSIONERS BE?

There are two possibilities on the table regarding the salary increase rate for pensioners. As of September, the 3-month inflation difference that pensioners will receive has been determined to be 8.92%. According to the first scenario; even if the inflation announced in November and December is only 1%, the difference pensioners will receive will be 12.22%. If the inflation for November and December is 2%, the year-end inflation difference for pensioners will be 15.59%. If inflation in the last two months of 2024 is realized at 3%, the inflation difference will reflect 19.32% in salaries. However, in an environment where the lowest pension is 12,500 lira, if inflation is 20% and the 2025 pension increase is determined based on this inflation rate, the lowest pension will be 15,000 lira. However, the discussion about the base salary depends on the steps the government will take.

SECOND ESTIMATE FOR THE LOWEST PENSION

Signals are being given from the government side that there will be no increase above the inflation rate for both the minimum wage and pension salaries. Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek stated that the year-end inflation expectation for 2024 is 41.5%, but an increase of 17.5%, which is the expected inflation for 2025, will be made for the minimum wage. Although the minimum wage figure has not yet been finalized, it is being discussed that the increase in pension salaries should be parallel to the minimum wage. In this case, both the year-end figure for the minimum wage and the pension salary stands out as 17.5. In this scenario, the lowest pension will rise to 14,687 lira.