"UN's inflation and growth forecast for Turkey"

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The United Nations (UN) stated that global economic growth is projected to remain unchanged at 2.8% this year compared to 2024, noting that low inflation and monetary expansion provide some relief, but trade tensions, high debt burdens, and geopolitical risks have clouded the outlook.

The UN released the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2025 report. The report indicated that global economic growth is expected to remain at 2.8% this year compared to 2024, with a forecast of 2.9% in 2026. The report pointed out that the global economy has shown resilience against a series of shocks, but growth is constrained by weak investment, stagnant productivity growth, and high debt levels, remaining below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.

LOW INFLATION AND MONETARY EXPANSION

The report expressed that low inflation and ongoing monetary expansion in many economies could provide modest support to global economic activity this year, while also highlighting that uncertainty remains high due to geopolitical conflicts, rising trade tensions, and increasing borrowing costs in many parts of the world.

The report stated that economic growth in the US, projected to be 2.8% in 2024, is expected to drop to 1.9% this year due to a softening labor market and slowing consumer spending, while in the European Union, growth is noted to rise from last year's 0.9% to 1.3% in 2025. The report also mentioned that growth is expected to be 4.8% in China, 6.6% in India, 0.8% in France, 0.3% in Germany, and 1.2% in the United Kingdom this year.

MONETARY EXPANSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

The report indicated that global trade is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, but trade tensions, protectionist policies, and geopolitical uncertainties pose risks to the outlook. It was noted that global inflation, projected to be 4% in 2024, is expected to decline to 3.4% in 2025, with major central banks anticipated to further lower interest rates this year due to continuing easing of inflationary pressures.

Despite the easing of global inflation, the report pointed out that food inflation remains high, with nearly half of developing countries expected to have food inflation rates above 5% in 2024. It highlighted that this situation deepens food insecurity in low-income countries facing extreme weather events, conflicts, and economic instability, warning that ongoing food inflation combined with slow economic growth could push millions more into poverty.

CALL FOR MULTILATERAL ACTION

The report called for multilateral action to address the crises of debt, inequality, and climate change, stating, "Monetary expansion alone will not be sufficient to revive global growth or address rising inequalities. Governments should avoid overly restrictive fiscal policies and instead focus on mobilizing investments in critical social sectors such as clean energy, infrastructure, and health and education."

INFLATIONARY PRESSURES IN TURKEY ARE EXPECTED TO EASE

The report indicated that Turkey's economy is projected to grow by 3% in 2024, with expectations of 3.1% growth in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.

It was noted that inflation in the country is expected to be 43.9% in 2025 and 21.6% in 2026, with a forecast of some easing in monetary policy in 2025 alongside the decline in inflation.

The report stated that the government's fiscal consolidation measures aimed at reducing inflation are expected to help narrow the fiscal deficit this year and alleviate inflationary pressures.