UPDATE- US Center: No Fraud Evidence In Bolivia's October Polls

A U.S. research center said Thursday that 'no evidence of fraud' was found in Bolivia's presidential elections last October, which resulted in the ouster of former President Evo Morales.

"A new study, which analyzes the results of Bolivia's October election, concludes 'we cannot find results that would lead […] to the same conclusion as the OAS' that there was an 'inexplicable' and drastic change in the trend of the vote," Center of Economic and Political Research (CEPR) said in a statement.

CEPR announced analysis by Jack Williams and John Curiel of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, determined "it is very likely that Morales won the required 10 percentage point margin to win in the first round of the election on October 20, 2019."

"The study, commissioned by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) to independently verify its November 2019 study, reaches many of the same conclusions as that earlier statistical analysis, and replicates some of the most significant statistical findings showing consistent voting trends in favor of Morales, before and after the interruption of the preliminary vote count [trep]," it said.

"Repeated Organization of American States (OAS) claims of an 'inexplicable' change in the vote count trend of the TREP were the basis for allegations of fraud shortly after the elections took place," it added.

The authors of the study said the regional bloc produced "oddity" in the voting procedure showing the break in the vote count as the cause, however, results "resumed in a similar trend" after the break.

"The OAS's claim that the stopping of the trep during the Bolivian election produced an oddity in the voting trend is contradicted by the data," the MIT researchers said in the study. "While there was a break in the reporting of votes, the substance of those later-reporting votes could be determined prior to the break."

Jack Williams, co-author of the study, stressed the OAS's statements seem to have been made regarding the preliminary election results "without basis in fact."

"Morales appears to have been heading toward a first-round victory prior to the interruption of the preliminary count. The results once the count resumed are in line with the prior trend," Williams added.

Bolivia's electoral authority suspended the processing of tally sheets in the preliminary count on Election Night with 83.85% of tally sheets verified and Morales ahead by a difference of 7.87% points over runner-up candidate and former President Carlos Mesa, according to the study. When results from the preliminary count were next reported with additional tally sheets verified, "they showed Morales above the 10 percentage point margin of victory that would give him a first-round win."

"But, contrary to OAS statements that fueled violent protests opposition rejection of the election results, these results are entirely consistent, and there was no 'inexplicable change in trend' in the preliminary count as the OAS had claimed," it said.

CEPR Co-Director Mark Weisbrot claimed the OAS "greatly misled the media and the public" about what happened in Bolivia's elections, and "helped to foster a great deal of mistrust in the electoral process and the results."

"This important analysis from MIT election researchers is the latest to show that the OAS's statements were without basis, and that simple arithmetic shows that there is no evidence that fraud or irregularities affected the preliminary results, or the official results ― the ones that actually matter," Weisbrot said.

He called the OAS to explan the issue.

- Bolivia's political crisis

Turmoil in Bolivia began when Morales won a fourth term in office -- which was beyond the legal limit -- in October and faced immediate resistance from opposition parties that challenged the presidential election results. Protesters took to the streets claiming the ballot was rigged.

The indigenous leader who championed agrarian rights said he was the winner of the election in the first round, and if there was any rigging, it was the work of the OAS, not his party's.

After weeks of upheaval, Morales resigned under pressure from the military and moved to Mexico, where he was offered political asylum. He was then granted asylum in Argentina.

Meanwhile, conservative Senator Jeanine Anez proclaimed herself interim president.

Bolivians will elect their next president, vice president and other legislators May 3 after months of political strife.

Having reached the constitutional limit of two terms in the office, Morales will not be able to run again for the presidency.

The Movement for Socialism, of MAS party that Morales headed, will be represented by Luis Arce Catacora as it was decided after two days of "intense debate" in Argentina with the leaders of MAS and the Pact of Unity -- a national alliance of Bolivian grassroots organizations in support of indigenous and agrarian rights. -