14.06.2025 16:00
As tensions rise between Israel and Iran, the world is watching the potential regional and global impacts of a possible conflict. The BBC has analyzed the worst-case scenarios that could arise if the clashes between the parties continue.
```html
The conflicts between Israel and Iran currently seem limited to the two countries. Calls for restraint are widely made at the United Nations and elsewhere. But what if these calls go unheeded, the conflicts escalate, and widen?
Here are some possible worst-case scenarios;
- AMERICA INTERVENES
Despite all of the U.S.'s denials, Iran clearly believes that American forces approve of Israel's attacks and at least tacitly support them.
Iran could strike U.S. targets in the Middle East, such as special forces camps in Iraq, military bases in the Gulf, and diplomatic missions in the region.
Iran's proxy forces - Hamas and Hezbollah - may have lost significant power, but the supportive militias in Iraq remain armed and intact.
The U.S. has feared such attacks and has withdrawn some personnel.
Washington has sternly warned Iran in its public messages about the consequences of any attack on American targets.
So what happens if an American citizen is killed in Tel Aviv or elsewhere?
President Donald Trump may feel compelled to take action.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been accused of trying to draw the U.S. into defeating Iran.
Military experts say that only the U.S. has bombers and bunker-busting bombs capable of penetrating, especially at Fordo.
Trump promised his voters that he would not start "endless wars" in the Middle East with the slogan "Make America Great Again" (MAGA).
A number of Republicans also support both the Israeli government and its view that the time has come for regime change in Tehran.
However, if America becomes active in the war, it would mean a significant escalation with potentially devastating consequences.
- GULF COUNTRIES INTERVENE
If Iran fails to damage Israel's fortified military and other targets, it can always direct its missiles at softer targets in the Gulf, especially countries it believes have aided its enemies for years.
There are numerous energy and infrastructure targets in the region. It should be noted that Iran was accused of striking Saudi Arabia's oil fields in 2019 and hitting targets in the United Arab Emirates in 2022 through its proxy, the Houthis.
Since then, a sort of reconciliation has been achieved between Iran and some countries in the region.
However, these countries host U.S. air bases. Some also covertly helped defend against Israel's missile attacks on Iran last year.
If Gulf countries are attacked, they may then demand that American warplanes defend themselves as well as Israel.
- ISRAEL CANNOT DESTROY IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPACITY
What if the Israeli attack fails? What if Iran's nuclear facilities are too deep, too well-protected? What if the 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium - just a small step away from full weapon quality, enough nuclear fuel for ten bombs - is not destroyed?
These may be hidden deep in secret mines. Israel may have killed some nuclear scientists, but no bomb can eliminate Iran's knowledge and expertise.
What if the Israeli attack leads the Iranian leadership to believe that the way to deter further attacks is to quickly achieve nuclear capability?
What if the new military leaders around the table act more stubbornly and less cautiously than their deceased predecessors?
At the very least, this could force Israel into further attacks and plunge the region into a continuous cycle of attack and counterattack. The Israelis have a ruthless saying they use for this strategy; they call it "mowing the grass."
- GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS
Oil prices are already very high.
What if Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz, further restricting the flow of oil?
What happens if the Houthis in Yemen double down on their efforts to attack ships in the Red Sea? The Houthis are Iran's last proxy ally with a record of unpredictability and high-risk appetite.
Many countries around the world are already experiencing a cost-of-living crisis. Rising oil prices will further increase inflation in the already strained global economic system, which is cracking under the weight of Trump's tariff war.
Let’s not forget that the only person benefiting from rising oil prices will be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will see billions more flow into the Kremlin's coffers to cover the costs of his war against Ukraine.
- IRANIAN REGIME COLLAPSES, A VACUUM IS CREATED
What if Israel succeeds in its long-term goal of forcing the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran to collapse?
Netanyahu claims that his primary goal is to destroy Iran's nuclear capacity. However, in a statement he made yesterday, he clearly revealed that his broader aim is regime change.
Addressing "the proud people of Iran," Netanyahu said that his attack "opens the way for your freedom" from what he called a "bad and oppressive" regime.
Toppling the Iranian government may appeal to some in the region, especially some Israelis. But what kind of vacuum could it leave? What unpredictable consequences could arise? How would internal conflict manifest in Iran?
Many remember what happened in both Iraq and Libya when a strong central government was removed.
```Elbette, mevcut HTML yapısını bozmadan metni İngilizceye çevirebilirim. İşte çeviri:
```html
So many things depend on how this war will progress in the coming days.
How will Iran retaliate - and how harshly? And what kind of restrictions can the US impose on Israel - if any?
Much will change depending on the answers to these two questions.
.
```
Eğer img tagları da eklemek isterseniz, lütfen örnek img taglarını paylaşın, böylece onların title ve alt taglerini de çevirebilirim.