Erdoğan's Shanghai Organization Remarks Lead To Confusion, Concern

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent remarks stating that Turkey is seriously considering seeking membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have led to serious concerns and confusion among prominent analysts.



As Turkey and the European Union have failed to make substantial progress in their accession talks, Erdoğan once again brought the SCO issue onto the agenda, saying Turkey is seriously considering being part of the SCO, which he considers as an alternative at a time when the EU's future looks increasingly dim.



The SCO is a mutual-security organization which was founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The other countries, with the exception of Uzbekistan, had been members of the Shanghai Five, founded in 1996; after the inclusion of Uzbekistan in 2001, the members renamed the organization.



Speaking to reporters during a televised program aired on Kanal 24 late on Friday, Erdoğan said Turkey is now seeking alternative options amid eroding hopes on the EU process with regards to the adamant opposition to Turkey's membership by a number of EU member countries.



However, analysts believe that organizations such as the SCO cannot be an alternative to the EU for Turkey.



A Turkish intellectual and writer, Mehmet Altan, considers Erdoğan's remarks to be lacking political consciousness. "First of all, the SCO's most important feature is that it lacks democracy, whereas the EU is a democratic organization. Erdoğan's remarks should be considered as giving up on efforts to democratize Turkey and shifting to an organization which lacks democracy but prefers dictatorship," Altan told Today's Zaman.



Turkey has made quite a number of democratic changes to its legal and bureaucratic structure in recent years. And with most Turkish people using the EU as a reference point with regards to the democratic steps that the country should take, analysts oppose the SCO being presented as an alternative to the EU.



Erdoğan added: "If we get into the SCO, we will say goodbye to the European Union. The SCO is better -- much more powerful. Pakistan wants in. India wants in as well. If the SCO wants us, all of us will become members of this organization."



Altan considers Erdoğan's remarks as "very dangerous." "Consider an organization where all the members lack democracy. So it seems like Erdoğan wants to move towards dictatorship. The SCO is the most serious opposition to NATO. On the one hand, you are a NATO member but on the other, you want to become a member of an anti-NATO organization. This attitude has the potential to change the balance in the world," said Altan, adding that Erdoğan's statements were very contradictory.



Meanwhile, Faruk Loğoğlu, a deputy chairman of Turkey's main opposition the Republican People's Party (CHP), wrote on his Twitter account, "[The Justice and development Party] AKP, which considers Shanghai Five as an alternative to the EU, underestimates Turkey's future and foreign policy interests."



Turkey was accepted as a dialogue partner by the Shanghai Five at its annual summit in Beijing on June 7, 2012.



According to Özdem Sanberk, president of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), Erdoğan is serious about his remarks. "I don't think he was bluffing when saying that Turkey is seriously considering the SCO. Turkey's remarks may lead to a great strategic change in the world order because a NATO member country, Turkey, will become a member of an anti-NATO bloc, which also includes Russia and China," Sanberk told Today's Zaman.



This is not the first time that Erdoğan has raised this issue. Right after his visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin back in July, Russian and Turkish media reported on this same issue, despite denials by Turkish authorities who said, "Erdoğan was joking when he asked Putin if they would accept Turkey as a member of the Shanghai Five."



However, Sanberk believes that although Erdoğan is quite serious in considering the SCO as a strategic alternative, both China as well as Russia would not consider Turkey's membership unless both countries face a serious crisis with the US. "In my view, it is unlikely for Turkey to take part in an alliance which is against NATO," said Sanberk.



For some analysts, Erdoğan's call may also be interpreted as a "veiled" signal to the EU that Turkey is not obliged to the EU and has alternatives.



"Erdoğan's remarks show that Turkey has many alternatives to the EU. But Turkey is still continuing its efforts in the EU accession process. I don't think that Turkey will consider the SCO unless it faces serious problem in its EU track. If it becomes definite that Turkey will not become an EU member, Turkey will start to consider its alternatives, which one which is the SCO," former Foreign Minister Yaşar Yakış told Today's Zaman.



When asked to clarify whether the Shanghai Five is an alternative to the EU, Erdoğan said, "The Shanghai Five is better and more powerful and we have common values with them."



In response to the question of why doesn't Turkey bid goodbye to the EU now, Erdoğan said that the country has a relationship with the EU and without first finding alternatives and laying the groundwork to bid goodbye to the EU, it would be too risky. "Thus, we need to prepare the groundwork first," said Erdoğan.



Erdoğan also said in the interview that Turkey has not yet given up on the EU process. "[Minister of EU Affairs and Chief Negotiator] Egemen Bağış makes his presentation on [Turkish-EU] relations at every Cabinet meeting. He regularly travels throughout Europe," said Erdoğan, citing the government's continued interest in the EU despite the pessimistic atmosphere.



Turkey has been making efforts to enter the EU as a full member since 1963, when it signed a partnership agreement with the then European Economic Community. But the EU's unwelcoming attitude has caused much frustration for Turkey.



Some analysts think that Erdoğan's remark was no more than muscle-flexing for the EU. According to Nüzhet Kandemir, Turkey's former ambassador to Washington and a prominent foreign policy commentator, Erdoğan's remarks also aims to send an important message to the EU that Turkey has many other alternatives.



"Turkey was considering taking part in the SCO a long time ago but this desire was never at the expense of the EU. The SCO was never considered as an alternative to the EU. I consider his statements as strategic. Indeed, being a member of the SCO may bring economic benefits but giving up on the EU process will seriously harm Turkey's interests," said Kandemir



Turkey opened accession talks with the EU in 2005, but progress has been slow since then due to its Cyprus dispute and opposition to Turkey's membership from some member countries such as France and Germany. Of the 35 chapters that must be successfully negotiated by any candidate country as a condition for membership, only 13 have been opened by Turkey, 17 have been blocked and four have not yet been opened -- only one is provisionally closed, that on science and research.



(Cihan/Today's Zaman)