24.04.2025 10:41
Prof. Dr. Marco Bohnhoff shared two critical scenarios regarding the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred off the coast of Silivri, Istanbul. According to Bohnhoff, the first scenario suggests that the 6.2 earthquake is the "main shock," and that the aftershocks will gradually decrease over time. The second scenario posits that the anticipated major earthquake has not yet occurred, and that this tremor could be a precursor to it.
Yesterday at 12:49, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake occurred in Silivri, Istanbul, causing great panic in the megacity.
THERE ARE 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
While experts discuss whether this tremor is a precursor to a major Istanbul earthquake, one of Germany's leading seismologists, Prof. Dr. Marco Bohnhoff, provided information to Sinem Özdemir from DW Turkish about 2 possible scenarios.
The first scenario suggests that the 6.2 earthquake is the "main earthquake" and that the aftershocks will gradually decrease over time. However, the second scenario indicates that the anticipated major earthquake has not yet occurred and that this tremor could be a precursor to it.
"THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EARTHQUAKE COULD REACH 7.4"
Prof. Bohnhoff pointed out that in the second scenario, the magnitude of the potential major earthquake could reach up to 7.4, stating, "This means the long-awaited major earthquake in Marmara is likely to occur. However, it is not possible to predict which scenario is valid from today."
"STRESS HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS ISTANBUL"
According to Bohnhoff, the 6.2 earthquake has shifted the stress along the Marmara fault line towards Istanbul. This increases the likelihood of a new earthquake occurring in a region closer to Istanbul. Still, the answer to the question of "when" remains uncertain at this stage.