24.04.2025 18:04
Prof. Dr. Ercan Aksoy, a faculty member of the Geology Department at Fırat University, stated, "It is not correct to expect a major earthquake based on the faults that have broken. The main danger lies in the area between Palu and Bingöl. This region has not produced earthquakes for a long time. These are referred to as seismic gaps. The time for an earthquake to occur has passed, but an earthquake has not yet happened. This area appears to be risky."
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Fırat University Geology Department Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Ercan Aksoy made statements about the East Anatolian and North Anatolian faults and the earthquake that occurred in Istanbul yesterday.
"SEISMIC ACTIVITY STARTED IN 2020" Prof. Dr. Aksoy stated, "Before 2020, we observed a long earthquake activity around Elazığ for about 5 years, and a few months before the earthquake on January 24, 2020, two earthquakes occurred with a magnitude above 5, and then we experienced the 2020 earthquake. About a year later, at the end of 2020, we experienced a 5.9 magnitude earthquake near the airport, just north of the main fault we call the Uluova fault. These are the main branch that worked in the Elazığ earthquake on the East Anatolian fault, and then we saw that the northern branch produced an earthquake. A similar event occurred; we experienced a second earthquake on the northern branch centered in Elbistan, 9 hours after the earthquake we call the Pazarcık earthquake on February 6, 2023. This also gives us information about the earthquake production capacity of the East Anatolian fault. We see similar events in the earthquakes that occurred around Elazığ in 1874 and 1875. Similarly, we observed this in the Kale district of Malatya in 1893 and 1905. This interval was 9 hours in the last earthquakes on February 6, 2023. While it was nearly 1 year around Elazığ, it stands out as nearly 10 years around Kale," he said.
"IT WOULD NOT BE CORRECT TO EXPECT A LARGE EARTHQUAKE ON BROKEN FAULTS" After the earthquake on February 6, Prof. Dr. Aksoy reported that a large part of the East Anatolian fault, over 400 kilometers, had broken. He stated: "This caused a significant energy release on these main faults. Therefore, a certain amount of time is needed for the broken faults to produce earthquakes again. Because energy needs to accumulate. For this reason, it would not be correct to expect a large earthquake on the broken faults. Other earthquakes in the region are not just a single break on the faults; there are multiple segments. Each segment has many branches. Therefore, many earthquakes occurred on the sections that did not break during the February 6 earthquake. We are still experiencing these. Especially at the endpoints of the breaks that occurred during the February 6, 2023 earthquake, in the southwest around Göksun and Hatay, and when we come to the northeast, around Malatya Yeşilyurt and Sincik, these are the endpoint sections of the broken fault. It is quite normal for earthquakes to occur here. It is not correct to expect a large earthquake on the broken faults.
"THE MAIN DANGER IS BETWEEN PALU AND BINGÖL" The main danger is the area between Palu and Bingöl. This area has not produced earthquakes for a long time. These are referred to as seismic gaps. The time for an earthquake to occur has expired, but an earthquake has not yet occurred. This area appears to be risky. An earthquake that occurs here poses a risk, especially for Elazığ, Bingöl, and surrounding provinces. We have no chance of knowing when the earthquake will occur. We know where it will occur because the locations on our maps are clear. Especially after the February 6, 2023 earthquake, very intensive field studies were conducted. We have a very rich data source. What needs to be done is not to build in areas where surface breaks exist and to choose the appropriate building type for the ground when constructing in other areas," he said.
"THE DATE HAS PASSED " Reminding that Yedisu is located between Erzincan and the Karlıova district of Bingöl, Prof. Dr. Aksoy continued: "Since the last earthquake occurred here in 1784, about 250 years have passed. Studies conducted on this fault indicate that this date has passed according to the earthquake recurrence interval. Therefore, this area is also considered a seismic gap like the seismic gap between Palu and Bingöl. If we consider that the entire 75 kilometers of the fault will break, the occurrence of an earthquake of 7 or above is within the realm of possibility. However, it is also worth noting that we cannot always know that the entire fault will break. Let's prepare ourselves for the worst-case scenario; if a smaller portion breaks, we will be lucky.
"WE CANNOT KNOW WHEN THE UNBROKEN FAULTS IN ISTANBUL WILL PRODUCE AN EARTHQUAKE, BUT WE CAN SAY THERE IS A RISK" As for the North Anatolian fault, on April 23 at 12:49, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake occurred in Istanbul. This occurred on a section of the fault that is referred to as the Marmara earthquake fault. A small earthquake occurred beforehand, followed by a 6.2 magnitude earthquake. We see that there are nearly 200 aftershocks following these earthquakes. From this perspective, there are independent earthquakes and aftershocks. The presence of numerous aftershocks also indicates that the faults in that area are under stress and that breaks are occurring on the fault. As far as we can follow from the literature, there are also unbroken faults. It is not possible to say when they will produce an earthquake, but we can say that there is a risk there.
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