12.08.2026 10:21
The escalation of geopolitical risks in global markets has driven investors toward safe havens. While spot gold is testing the $4,400 per ounce level, gram gold in the domestic market continues to trade above the 6,750 Turkish Lira level. The markets' attention has now turned to the US inflation data, which will be released today at 15:30.
The resurgence of geopolitical risks in global markets has accelerated investors' search for safe havens. With developments from the Middle East and Asia strengthening demand for gold, the ounce price is showing a picture testing the $4,400 level. In the domestic market, gram gold continues its movement above the 6,750 TL level.
The US July inflation data, to be announced, is of critical importance not only for the dollar and bond markets but also for the direction gold will follow in the coming period. If inflation figures deviate from expectations, sharp movements in gold prices are possible. Analysts are closely tracking whether the ounce price can sustain levels above $4,400.
GEOPOLITICAL TENSION BRINGS GOLD BACK TO THE FOREFRONT
One of the significant reasons behind the recent rise in gold prices has been the increasing geopolitical uncertainties on a global scale. The ongoing tension in the Middle East, attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, and military activity in the region are causing investors to move away from risky assets. During periods of uncertainty, investors' orientation towards safe-haven assets like gold continues to strengthen demand for the precious metal.
RISE IN OIL INCREASES INFLATION CONCERNS
The impact of geopolitical developments is not only felt in the gold market. The rise in oil prices is also shifting market balances. Brent oil approaching the $90 level brings concerns that energy costs could once again become one of the significant risks to the global economy. If oil prices remain high for an extended period, it could push consumer prices up through transportation and production costs. This situation is considered a development that could complicate the fight against inflation, especially in the US. If inflation accelerates again, it is predicted that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could act more cautiously in its interest rate policy.
NEW SCENARIOS FOR THE FED ON THE AGENDA
Regarding the direction of gold, the Fed's interest rate policy continues to be one of the most important topics. Under normal circumstances, the expectation of falling interest rates is seen as one of the key factors supporting gold. This is because declining rates can make gold, which yields no interest, more attractive to investors.
However, if high inflation persists, expectations that the Fed might delay rate cuts could strengthen. In a more severe scenario, markets might start pricing in the possibility of rate hikes again. Such a development could push the dollar index and US Treasury yields higher, potentially creating selling pressure on gold. Therefore, the inflation figure to be announced today will be critical for expectations regarding how the Fed will act in the coming months.
15:30 ALERT IN MARKETS
Investors' eyes will be on the US July inflation data, expected to be announced at 15:30 Turkey time today. If the data comes in below market expectations, expectations that the Fed can act more comfortably regarding rate cuts could strengthen. In such a scenario, a decline in the dollar globally and falling bond yields could support gold prices. If inflation comes in above expectations, the opposite scenario could come to the fore. A rising dollar index and strengthening US Treasury yields could cause investors to exit gold. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see high volatility in the ounce price following the data release.
$4,400 LEVEL IS A CRITICAL THRESHOLD
From a technical perspective, the $4,400 level for gold stands out as one of the most important zones closely monitored by markets. If a strong move forms above this level and sustainability is achieved, it is considered that the upward trend could continue.
- Resistance Levels: The next significant resistance point highlighted by analysts is located at the $4,435 level. If the ounce price rises above this zone, the $4,500 level, long on markets' radar, could strongly come back into focus. Especially if the US inflation data presents a picture favorable to gold, the $4,500 target is expected to be discussed more.
- Support Levels: Alongside the upside scenario in gold, potential pullbacks are also closely monitored by investors. In the technical outlook, the $4,298 level stands out as one of the first significant support zones, while the $4,161 level is considered critical support in case of deeper sell-offs.
Maintaining these levels could be important for the continuation of the medium-term upward trend. However, it is noted that if the inflation data comes in well above expectations, selling could accelerate, and short-term technical levels could gain more significance.
US DATA MAY DETERMINE THE NEW DIRECTION FOR GOLD
While global geopolitical risks support gold remaining strong, short-term market direction will be determined by economic data coming from the US. Following the inflation figures to be announced today at 15:30, interest rate expectations regarding the Fed are expected to be reshaped.
If inflation comes in low, it might be possible to break the $4,400 resistance and strengthen the $4,500 target. A data point exceeding expectations could temporarily halt the rise in gold. Therefore, one of the most critical hours of the week for the gold market will be 15:30. Investors will closely monitor both the inflation figures and the initial reaction of the dollar, bond yields, and the ounce gold price.