23.10.2026 14:50
According to the latest calculations made in line with inflation data and market expectation surveys for the January 2027 civil servant pay raise, the increase rate is expected to reach 8.39% and the lowest civil servant salary is expected to exceed 76,000 TL.
The eyes of approximately 6.5 million public employees and civil servant retirees are on the raise rate to be applied in January 2027. New calculations made in line with the first 3-month inflation data announced by TÜİK and market expectation surveys have clarified scenarios regarding the inflation differential and total raise rate to be applied in January. According to the strongest expectation scenario, the lowest civil servant salary is projected to exceed the 76,000 TL threshold.
FIRST 3-MONTH INFLATION WAS 5.57 PERCENT
In order for civil servants and civil servant retirees to receive an inflation differential, the 6-month inflation in the second half of 2026 must exceed the 7 percent collective bargaining threshold. According to TÜİK data, with inflation figures announced as 1.78 percent in July, 1.84 percent in August, and 1.84 percent in September, the total inflation for the first 3 months was 5.57 percent. October, November, and December data are awaited for the raise rate to be finalized.
SALARY SCENARIOS ACCORDING TO CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
According to the Financial Institutions Association (FKE) expectation survey, 6-month inflation is expected to be 10.45 percent. In this scenario, together with a 3.22 percent inflation differential and the collective bargaining raise, the total increase rate reaches 8.39 percent. According to year-end estimates by other economic institutions, the raise scenarios on the table are shaped as follows:
- - Financial Institutions Association Estimate (8.39% Raise): The lowest civil servant salary rises from 70,224 TL to 76,116 TL, and the lowest civil servant retiree pension rises from 31,527 TL to 34,172 TL.
- - AA Finans Expectation (8.05% Raise): The lowest civil servant salary becomes 75,877 TL, and the lowest civil servant retiree pension becomes 34,065 TL.
- - Market Participants Survey (8.02% Raise): The lowest civil servant salary reaches 75,856 TL, and the lowest civil servant retiree pension reaches 34,055 TL.
- - Medium-Term Program Estimate (7.00% Raise): The lowest civil servant salary is calculated as 75,140 TL, and the lowest civil servant retiree pension as 33,734 TL.
- - CBRT Year-End Estimate (6.67% Raise): The lowest civil servant salary remains at 74,908 TL, and the lowest civil servant retiree pension at 33,631 TL.
ESTIMATED SALARY CALCULATIONS BY PROFESSION
According to FKE's highest raise scenario of 8.39 percent, the current and possible January salaries of some occupational groups are listed as follows:
- - Specialist Doctor: 170,730 TL → 185,054 TL
- - Professor: 153,208 TL → 166,062 TL
- - Engineer: 109,185 TL → 118,346 TL
- - Branch Manager (Bachelor's Degree): 107,110 TL → 116,097 TL
- - Lawyer: 102,135 TL → 110,704 TL
- - Police Officer: 92,618 TL → 100,389 TL
- - Specialist Teacher: 92,166 TL → 99,899 TL
- - Nurse (Bachelor's Degree): 84,845 TL → 91,963 TL
- - Teacher: 83,254 TL → 90,239 TL
- - Civil Servant (Bachelor's Degree): 73,070 TL → 79,201 TL