12.11.2026 10:01
The dollar, strengthened by October inflation in the US exceeding expectations and Fed officials' statements signaling a rate hike, pulled gold prices to their lowest level in a week. While spot gold fell as low as $3,969, dropping below $4,000, gram gold is trading at 6,430 lira. As expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting strengthened, eyes turned to the US PPI data to be announced on Friday.
Gold in global markets started the second half of the week with losses under pressure from US inflation data and a strengthening dollar. The decline in spot gold was also reflected in domestic prices.
SPOT GOLD BELOW $4,000
Spot gold, which rose to as high as $4,066 the previous day, ended the day with a 1.1% loss at $3,988 as selling accelerated. Spot gold, which fell to as low as $3,969 on Thursday morning, saw its lowest level since November 4. As of 07:27 Turkey time, spot gold was trading at $3,978. December US gold futures fell 0.4% to $3,983.
GRAM GOLD AT 6,430 LIRA
Spot gram gold, which closed the previous day at 6,339 lira with a 1.12% loss, started the new trading day at 6,428 lira. In the free market, as of 09:13, the selling price of gram gold was recorded at 6,430.11 lira, while the selling price of quarter gold was 10,557 lira. Half gold is sold in the 21,000-lira band, and Republic gold in the 42,000-lira band.
US INFLATION EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS
According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month in October. The market expectation was 0.3%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% expectation. Housing and food costs stood out in the increase.
The annual inflation rate for October was not disclosed. The BLS reported that due to the government shutdown in October last year, price data could not be collected and an annual comparison could not be made.
DOLLAR AT 19-MONTH PEAK
After the inflation data, the dollar rose to its highest level in the last 19 months against major currencies. Gold, priced in dollars, became more costly for investors using other currencies. The rise in US bond yields also limited demand for gold, which offers no interest return.
EYES ON FED'S DECEMBER MEETING
Markets have largely priced in a rate hike at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting. Some market pricing indicates the probability of a hike in December at 91%. Before the data was released, Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said that if core inflation came in at 0.3% or above month-on-month, a larger 50-basis-point increase could be on the agenda.
Investors are now focused on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data to be released on Friday, November 13, at 16:30 Turkey time.
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS HAVE A TWO-WAY EFFECT
Tension between the US and Iran and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz keep concerns about energy supply alive. While Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei's presenting conditions to the US for negotiations and stating that nuclear material would not be allowed to leave the country prolong the diplomatic impasse, Qatar's mediation efforts continue.
While tension in the region supports gold through safe-haven demand, it also pushes oil prices higher, increasing inflation and rate-hike concerns. This creates additional pressure on gold.
CRITICAL SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
In technical assessments, the $3,975-$3,942 range is being monitored as a critical support zone for spot gold. In upward moves, the $4,083-$4,148 range stands out as the first resistance zone. For gram gold, the 6,645-lira level, where the 200-day average is located, and the 6,660-lira level, where the 50-day average is located, are being followed.
OCBC Strategist Christopher Wong suggested that if downside risks increase, spot gold could decline to $3,870. Tastylive Head of Global Macroeconomics Ilya Spivak stated that the $4,000 level is an important threshold for spot gold. Analysts said that in the short term, oil prices, bond yields, and the direction of the dollar will be determining.