18.07.2026 13:10
The gold market experienced a volatile week due to Fed interest rate expectations and a 12% rise in oil. Spot gold, which tested below the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce during the week, closed the week at $4,018, while gram gold closed at 6,093 TL. Despite short-term pressures, Goldman Sachs announced its year-end 2026 gold price target of $4,900 per ounce, emphasizing that strong central bank purchases will support prices.
Global gold markets left behind a highly critical week, shaped by Fed rate hike expectations, a strengthening US dollar, and volatility in the energy market. Under the pressure, gold slipped below the psychological threshold of $4,000 per ounce but managed to close the week just above this level. Despite this short-term fluctuation, the major investment bank Goldman Sachs highlighted strong central bank purchases and set a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
CRITICAL BALANCE AT THE $4,000 BOUNDARY
Spot gold prices, moving in the shadow of macroeconomic pressures, briefly dipped below $4,000 during the July 17 session, testing the lowest level of July. However, spot gold recovered by the end of the session and closed the week at $4,018. In the domestic market, gram gold ended the week at 6,093 TL. After suffering a sharp correction from its record high earlier this year and recording a 14% loss in the second quarter—its steepest quarterly decline since 2013—gold has been trading in a volatile range around the $4,000 per ounce band in recent weeks.
RISE IN OIL TRIGGERED THE FED'S INTEREST RATE WEAPON
One of the biggest pressure factors on gold prices was the energy market. With tensions in the Middle East creating supply disruption risks, Brent crude oil prices gained approximately 12% on a weekly basis. Rising oil prices heightened inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may continue with rate hikes. As markets began pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike at the December meeting, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose again. This weakened demand for gold, a non-yielding asset.
GOLDMAN SACHS: CENTRAL BANKS WILL FORM A FLOOR FOR PRICES
Despite short-term hawkish winds in the market, an optimistic analysis from global investment bank Goldman Sachs provided relief to gold investors. In a published note, the bank stated that central bank purchases would create a solid floor for prices against Fed-induced downward pressures. Predicting that central banks bought 81 tons of gold in May, Goldman Sachs argued that this diversification and re-acceleration move, led particularly by China, would push prices higher in the long term.
YEAR-END 2026 TARGET: $4,900!
Goldman Sachs emphasized that the strong and determined gold-buying strategy initiated by central banks is the key foundation supporting its long-term forecasts. In line with this global demand, the major bank announced it has set its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 at $4,900 per ounce.