22.08.2025 19:11
After the earthquake that occurred in the Sulusaray district of Tokat and was felt in surrounding provinces, experts continue to issue warnings for the region. Seismologist Serkan İçelli, who predicted the earthquakes on February 6, 2023, stated, "It is likely that this fault could produce an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.6 to 5.8 for its relief. This could also cause destruction in the surrounding area."
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In the village of Buğdaylı, located 64 kilometers from Tokat city center and 13 kilometers from Sulusaray district, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in 2024. A year after the earthquake, which was felt in surrounding provinces and districts, another earthquake of 4.1 magnitude occurred on August 21. It was reported that there was no damage or loss of life following the earthquake that caused panic in the district.
HE HAD PREDICTED THE FEBRUARY 6 EARTHQUAKES, WARNED ABOUT THE FAULT IN TOKAT
After the earthquakes that occurred in the last year, warnings came from experts. Earthquake Scientist Serkan İçelli, who predicted the February 6 earthquakes centered in Karamanmaraş, issued warnings regarding the Buğdaylı fault.
"IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EARTHQUAKES OF 5.6 AND 5.8 MAGNITUDE"
Stating that there were two different earthquakes of magnitude 4 on April 18, 2024, İçelli said, "This fault later produced a 5.6 magnitude earthquake. After these earthquakes, there were again five 4-magnitude earthquakes in succession. The 4.2 magnitude earthquake we experienced the other evening was not a surprise. It was one of the aftershocks that were expected. That area is about 25 kilometers. About 10 kilometers of this fault has ruptured. It is also possible for this fault to produce earthquakes of 5.6 and 5.8 magnitude for it to relieve itself. An earthquake of the same magnitude in that area could cause destruction in the tired buildings and structures there. Especially in Central Anatolia, our destruction threshold is 5.5 magnitude. This means that earthquakes above 5.5 magnitude can cause destruction in village areas, hamlets, and rural areas," he said.
"THERE IS ABOUT 8-10 KILOMETERS OF UNRUPTURED PART LEFT IN THE BUĞDAYLI FAULT"
Warning about the Buğdaylı fault, İçelli said, "We experienced six earthquakes last year. We experienced one larger earthquake at the same point. There will be earthquakes of the same magnitude at the same point because tectonism is at work. There is about 8-10 kilometers of unruptured part left in the Buğdaylı fault. This can produce a maximum of 5.8. This can also cause destruction in the surrounding area. Although we are 80 kilometers away from the earthquake in Sivas, we felt it too. We have major faults around us in Sivas, Amasya, Tokat, and Kayseri. These faults will produce earthquakes, if not today. Medium-sized earthquakes of 5.0 and 5.5 can catch us unexpectedly one night without any warning. They may not cause destruction, but we will be scared," he said.
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