26.04.2025 10:13
Following the earthquakes that occurred in Istanbul, discussions among experts continue, and a notable statement came from Prof. Dr. Naci Görür. Görür stated, "I do not believe in the different opinions that have emerged after the earthquake. For me, there is only one truth: A major earthquake is expected in the Marmara region. The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred has brought forward the timing of this major earthquake."
The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Istanbul has sparked debates among experts. Prof. Dr. Celal Şengör and Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy faced off in polemics, to which Prof. Dr. Naci Görür also contributed, clarifying the situation in a live broadcast and putting an end to the discussions.
Highlights from Naci Görür's statements;
"There will be a major Marmara earthquake in the Sea of Marmara. It will happen one day. The tension period here has been brought forward a bit. It has caused a change in tension. When opinions become two, three, or four, saying 'I think this way' does not increase the number of opinions. If you ask people on the street questions about earthquakes, you will get 15 different opinions. In seismology, when you say opinion, you conduct research, and that research has a bibliography. Science has a research unit. What methods did you use, how did you do it, what data did you collect? How did you interpret that data, and what conclusion did you reach?
"A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE WILL OCCUR IN MARMARA"
They will ask on which international platform you discussed these results and in which scientific journals you published them, and how much citation this topic received. Without this, saying 'I think this way' is not an opinion. In my view, there is only one opinion. There will be a major earthquake in Marmara. These earthquakes have brought forward the possibility of a major earthquake. It has deepened and accelerated the stress accumulation area. The Kumburgaz fault has 40 kilometers, even 50 kilometers, that have not broken. There is a 20-kilometer section that has broken.
"THERE ARE NO TWO DIFFERENT APPROACHES"
At the point where this fault intersects, there are the Islands, meaning there are 60 kilometers. There are no two different approaches. It is meaningless to present the non-scientific focus and statements of the public as if they were scientific. There is no such opinion based on scientific research. If there is, it should be stated that, according to such and such research, the situation is as follows. After the 1999 earthquake, the Sea of Marmara was an unknown dark sea. There was no scientific research. We conducted studies mapping the entire Marmara with 8 international ships, performing thousands of kilometers of geophysical, geological, and seismic studies, using 2 manned and 1 unmanned submarines. The northern branch of Marmara, the northern branch of the North Anatolian fault is 160 kilometers.
"IF YOU ADD UP, YOU WILL END UP HERE"
One is the 65-kilometer Adalar fault that runs south of the Islands. If this breaks, it will produce earthquakes in the magnitude of 6. The Kumburgaz branch is 75 kilometers long. It extends to the open waters of Yeşilköy and Silivri. If this breaks, it will produce at least a 7.2 earthquake. If the Adalar branch and this branch merge, then a 7.5 earthquake is expected. We said the Tekirdağ fault has broken. It has been imaged underwater, and videos have been taken. It looks very fresh and broken. If it had broken in 1776, it would have been covered and deformed to some extent. We said it broke in the 1912 Şarköy earthquake. The Kumburgaz and Adalar faults have filled up. The last break was in 1766. If you add up, you will end up here. The reason we fear from Marmara is not because it was a 6 magnitude. We are the ones who said to pay attention to Marmaray in 1999. When the 1999 earthquake occurred, we said the bottom of Marmara was loaded. The energy released in Marmara loaded Marmara. The 1912 Şarköy earthquake loaded the bottom of Marmara. On one side is Şarköy, on the other side is Kocaeli. In between is Marmara, and there is an earthquake.
"LET'S NOT DECEIVE OURSELVES"
Absolute void will definitely fill. We can say this comfortably. Marmara must break. Let's not deceive ourselves. I do not want my people to die. We must speak the scientific truths. If there is an opposing opinion, let them come and present their data to me. It must have been published in high international journals for me to take my hat off. It is not like this to express an opinion on a scientific matter. There is an international standard. There was a small earthquake on April 23, and everyone relaxed. They said, 'Nothing was destroyed.' This is not the earthquake we expect. I have nearly 3 million followers. I take the pulse. If the major earthquake we expect occurs in the Istanbul region, in the Sea of Marmara, we will definitely not see the current scene. It is certain that we will see destruction. It is certain that the economy in Istanbul will largely come to a halt.
"TURKEY WILL COLLAPSE ON ITS KNEES"
If the economy and production stop, Istanbul will sit in its place, and all of Turkey will collapse on its knees. Neither our economic nor our political independence will remain. When there is an Istanbul earthquake, I do not want my people to die. I want my safety. So how will I do this? Make my Istanbul and all my cities earthquake-resistant. Let them withstand the earthquake with minimum damage when a major earthquake occurs. One has 53,000 dead in Turkey, and one has 13 dead in Taiwan. That is also a coincidence. A major earthquake occurs, and daily life does not change. How can we make Istanbul earthquake-resistant? We should discuss this.
"SCIENCE SPEAKS CLEARLY"
The truths of science do not change. Science speaks clearly. If you want to make Istanbul or any city earthquake-resistant, first you must make the management earthquake-resistant, you must make the public and infrastructure earthquake-resistant. You will make the building stock, ecosystem, environment, and economy earthquake-resistant. In other words, you will make these 6 components earthquake-resistant. The state should make fewer roads, bridges, dams, and factories for me.
"LET'S ENSURE THE FUTURE OF OUR CHILDREN"
When the time comes, we will multiply. First, let them ensure my safety. Mr. Bahçeli also said, 'The issue of survival is the earthquake.' The President and our minister said the same. An Emergency Ministry should be established to make all of Turkey's cities earthquake-resistant. Let them do it in 10 years, let them do it in 25 years. We can comfortably make not only Istanbul but all of Turkey earthquake-resistant in 20 years. Let’s build fewer airports, roads, and bridges. While we give 3 lira to such a budget, let’s give 5 lira for earthquakes. Let’s ensure the future of our children.
"IT HAS HAPPENED IN BYZANTIUM AND THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE, IT WILL HAPPEN NOW"
It has happened in Marmara during Byzantium and the Ottoman Empire, and it will happen now. My generation should not die in an earthquake. Taiwan, America, Japan, India, China, and Italy have succeeded. If we forget, the government, the state, and the municipality will establish the mechanism and gradually do this work. They will do as much as they can, slowly but continuously. Preparing Istanbul or a city for an earthquake cannot be done at a desk. You must go to the streets and work 24 hours. At the beginning, there is no need for money or resources. There is work to be done on the streets. In Japan, even if you put a gun to a person's head, you cannot make them do anything against the earthquake. It is impossible. The public needs to be educated.