18.10.2026 13:20
With the announcement of the July, August, and September inflation data, the first 3-month portion of the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees became 5.57 percent. If the Central Bank’s year-end expectation of 29.63 percent in the Market Participants Survey materializes, the retiree raise will be 10.08 percent. In this case, the lowest retirement pension will rise from 23,552 lira to approximately 25,926 lira. The exact rate will become clear with the announcement of December inflation.
The countdown continues for the raise rate that millions of retirees will receive in January. The latest data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and year-end inflation expectations provide clues about how much retirement pensions will increase under different scenarios.
3-MONTH INFLATION AT 5.57 PERCENT
According to TÜİK data, consumer prices rose by 1.78 percent in July, 1.84 percent in August and 1.84 percent in September. With the September data announced on October 5, annual inflation became 29.73 percent. Total inflation in the July-September period is calculated as 5.57 percent. SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees are currently entitled to a raise at this rate.
THE EXACT RATE WILL BE DETERMINED BY OCTOBER-DECEMBER DATA
The exact rate of the retiree raise will become clear after the inflation data for October, November and December are also announced. The January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees is determined according to the 6-month inflation in the July-December period.
A 17.76 PERCENT RAISE WAS MADE IN JULY
In July, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees received a 17.76 percent raise, the first 6-month inflation rate, and the lowest retirement pension was increased to 23,552 lira. For civil servant retirees, a total raise of 13.52 percent was made, together with a 6.52 percent inflation difference.
MARKET EXPECTATION IS 29.63 PERCENT
In the Central Bank’s October Market Participants Survey, the 2026 year-end inflation expectation rose from 29.61 percent in the previous survey to 29.63 percent. In the Medium-Term Program (OVP), the year-end inflation forecast is 28.4 percent, while in the Inflation Report announced by the Central Bank on August 13, it is 28 percent.
HERE IS THE LOWEST RETIREMENT PENSION BY SCENARIO
- If year-end inflation remains at the Central Bank estimate of 28 percent, the raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be 8.70 percent and the lowest pension will rise to 25,601 lira.
- At the OVP forecast inflation of 28.4 percent, the raise rate will be 9.04 percent and the lowest pension will be 25,681 lira.
- At the market expectation of 29.63 percent, retirees will receive a 10.08 percent raise and the lowest pension will rise to approximately 25,926 lira.
RAISE FOR CIVIL SERVANT RETIREES BETWEEN 6.67 AND 8.01 PERCENT
According to calculations, the raise for civil servant retirees will be 6.67 percent if year-end inflation is 28 percent, and 8.01 percent if the market expectation materializes. In this case, the lowest civil servant retiree pension will be between 33,631 lira and 34,053 lira.