29.10.2026 18:56
After President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that financial resources had been created for retirees in the 2027 budget, calculations regarding the January increase began. Inflation in the July-September period was 5.57 percent. According to year-end estimates, the pensions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees may increase by between 9 and 10 percent. In this case, the lowest pension, currently 23,552 lira, is expected to rise to between 25,600 and 26,000 lira.
The January increase that millions of retirees will receive will be determined by inflation in the second half of the year. After President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statement, attention turned to whether a welfare share will be added on top of the inflation differential.
PRESIDENT ERDOĞAN POINTED TO THE END OF THE YEAR
In his statement after the Cabinet Meeting held at the Presidential Complex on Monday, October 26, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gave a message regarding retirees. Erdoğan said, “In the 2027 budget, we are creating financial means that will somewhat improve the situation of our retirees, who are the crown of our heads.”
Stating that they hope to implement the necessary legal regulation “within the framework of justice and fairness” and by the end of the year with Parliament’s discretion, Erdoğan emphasized that they are aware of the difficulties retirees experience and are trying to do their best on this issue.
3-MONTH INFLATION DIFFERENTIAL IS 5.57 PERCENT
The pensions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees are increased by the 6-month inflation rate for the July-December period. While monthly inflation was announced as 1.84 percent in September, 3-month inflation for the July-September period was 5.57 percent. October, November and December inflation data are awaited to finalize the increase rate.
INCREASE SCENARIOS ACCORDING TO INFLATION FORECASTS
If year-end inflation materializes at 28 percent, the estimate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), the increase for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be approximately 8.7 percent. In this case, the lowest retiree pension will rise to 25,601 lira.
If inflation materializes at 28.4 percent, the estimate in the Medium Term Program (MTP), the increase rate will rise to 9.04 percent and the lowest pension to 25,681 lira. If the approximately 29.6 percent expectation in the CBRT Market Participants Survey materializes, the increase will exceed 10 percent, and the lowest pension will be approximately 25,926 lira.
COLLECTIVE AGREEMENT AND INFLATION DIFFERENTIAL FOR CIVIL SERVANT RETIREES
Civil servant retirees will receive an inflation differential in January in addition to the 5 percent increase stemming from the collective agreement. If year-end inflation materializes according to the MTP forecast, the increase for civil servant retirees will be around 7 percent; if it materializes according to the market expectation, it will be around 8 percent. The lowest pension for civil servant retirees is around 33,000 lira. Of approximately 17 million retirees in Türkiye, 2.5 million are civil servant retirees.
EXPERT: A WELFARE SHARE REGULATION WILL BE ON THE AGENDA
Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University faculty member Prof. Dr. Abdulkadir Develi evaluated the 2027 increases on the CNN TÜRK broadcast he joined. Commenting on President Erdoğan’s statement, Develi said, “Here, at the same time, there will be a welfare share, that is, a regulation, an increase above inflation.”
Noting that according to current forecasts an increase of between 8 and 10 percent is expected for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and between 7 and 8 percent for civil servant retirees, Develi stated that the welfare share would be a separate improvement added on top of these rates. Develi noted that there is not yet a figure regarding the rate of the welfare share.
LUMP-SUM INCREASE DIFFERENTIAL IS ON THE AGENDA
Develi also drew attention to the expectation of a regulation for civil servant retirees. The lump-sum increase above 8,000 lira given to working civil servants in 2023 has reached approximately 15,000 lira in current payslips. Not reflecting this increase to retired civil servants widened the gap between working civil servants and civil servant retirees. Develi said an expectation has formed for a regulation to close this gap.