20.10.2026 10:52
While the first three-month inflation for the January 2027 raise for civil servants and retired civil servants was 5.57%, it was calculated that in 5 different scenarios, including the Central Bank Market Participants Survey and Medium-Term Program forecasts, total raise rates could vary between 6.67% and 8.66%.
A new calculation has emerged for the raise that civil servants and retired civil servants will receive in January 2027. While eyes are turned to inflation data for the differential, a new clue has come from the Central Bank for the raise rate that concerns approximately 6.5 million people. As calculations continue for the salary increases to be made in January 2027, approximately 6.5 million civil servants and retired civil servants are waiting for the inflation differential to be added to the collective bargaining raise. The year-end inflation expectation announced in the Central Bank's October Market Participants Survey brought a new scenario regarding salary increases onto the agenda.
3 DATA POINTS LEFT FOR THE INFLATION DIFFERENTIAL
According to data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), inflation was 1.78 percent in July, 1.84 percent in August, and 1.84 percent in September. Thus, the three-month inflation for the July-September period was calculated at 5.57 percent. In order for civil servants and retired civil servants to receive the inflation differential in January, the 6-month inflation in the second half of 2026 must exceed 7 percent. After the July, August, and September data, the October, November, and December inflation figures are awaited.
NEW CLUE FROM THE CENTRAL BANK AND MARKET EXPECTATION
The consumer inflation (CPI) expectation of participants in the October 2026 Market Participants Survey was 29.61 percent in the previous survey period, while it became 29.63 percent in this survey period. According to market participants, 6-month inflation will be approximately 10.08 percent. If this forecast materializes, an inflation differential of 2.88 percent will occur. In this case, the January raise for civil servants and retired civil servants will reach 8.02 percent.
MARKET SCENARIO FOR THE LOWEST SALARIES
If the January raise is 8.02 percent, the lowest civil servant salary, which rose to 70,224 lira in July, is expected to reach 75,856 lira. The lowest pension for retired civil servants was also calculated according to the same raise scenario. Accordingly, the lowest retired civil servant pension, which was 31,527 lira 77 kuruş in July, is projected to rise to 34,055 lira.
OTHER SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS ON THE TABLE
Other year-end inflation forecasts for the raise for public employees are also important:
- TCMB Year-End Expectation: According to the expectation of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), year-end CPI rose to 28 percent. If TCMB's year-end expectation materializes, 6-month inflation will be 8.70 percent. According to this forecast, an inflation differential of 1.59 percent will occur, and the total raise rate will be 6.67 percent. Accordingly, the lowest civil servant salary will rise to 74,908 TL, and the lowest retired civil servant pension to 33,631 lira.
- Medium-Term Program (OVP) Scenario: In the OVP, the 2026 year-end inflation forecast was announced as 28.4 percent. If this forecast materializes, inflation in the second half of the year is calculated to be at 9.04 percent. According to this scenario, an inflation differential of 1.91 percent will occur for civil servants and retired civil servants. Along with the 5 percent collective bargaining raise, the total increase is expected to reach approximately 7 percent. According to the calculation, the lowest civil servant salary may rise from 70,224 TL to 75,140 TL, and the lowest retired civil servant pension from 31,527 TL to 33,734 TL.
- AA Finans Expectation Survey: The 2026 year-end inflation forecast of economists participating in the AA Finans Inflation Expectation Survey was 29.66 percent. In line with this forecast, 6-month inflation is expected to be at 10.11 percent. In this case, it is calculated that an inflation differential of 2.91 percent may occur for civil servants and retired civil servants, and the total increase may reach 8.05 percent together with the collective bargaining raise. If the forecast materializes, the lowest civil servant salary may rise to 75,877 TL, and the lowest retired civil servant pension to 34,065 TL.
- Financial Institutions Association Research: The average of the 2026 year-end inflation forecasts of sector representatives participating in the Financial Institutions Association research was 30.39 percent. According to this forecast, inflation in the second half of the year is expected to reach 10.73 percent. In this scenario, it is calculated that the total raise rate for civil servants and retired civil servants may rise to 8.66 percent. If the forecast materializes, it is projected that the lowest civil servant salary may reach 76,305 TL, and the lowest retired civil servant pension 34,257 TL.
Here is the raise table by profession;