30.10.2026 09:50
With the announcement of year-end inflation forecasts for 2026, the January 2027 pay increase rates for civil servants and retired civil servants have begun to become clear; in 5 different scenarios such as the CBRT, MTP and Market Participants Survey, the lowest civil servant salary was calculated between 74,908 TL and 76,305 TL.
With the clarification of the first three months' inflation data for the second half of the year and the updating of year-end forecasts, the calculation marathon regarding the January 2027 raise rates for civil servants and retired civil servants has begun. The final increase rate will become clear through the combination of CPI data for October, November, and December and the collective agreement provisions.
THREE MONTHS OF DATA REMAIN AWAITED FOR THE INFLATION DIFFERENTIAL
According to TURKSTAT data, inflation was recorded at 1.78% in July 2026 and 1.84% in August and September. In the first three-month period of the second half of the year, cumulative inflation reached 5.57%. For civil servants and retired civil servants to receive an inflation differential, the six-month total inflation must exceed the 7% threshold set in the collective agreement. Accordingly, the final inflation differential will be determined by the data for the remaining three months of the year.
ACCORDING TO MARKET EXPECTATION, RAISE RATE IS 8.02%
According to the results of the October 2026 Market Participants Survey, the year-end CPI expectation was updated to 29.63%. If this expectation materializes, it is calculated that six-month inflation will remain at 10.08%, and an inflation differential of 2.88% will arise for civil servants and retired civil servants. When the 5% collective agreement increase is added, the total January raise rate reaches approximately 8.02%.
In this scenario, the lowest civil servant salary, which was 70,224 TL in July, rises to 75,856 TL, while the lowest retired civil servant pension, which was 31,527.77 TL, rises to 34,055 TL.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ACCORDING TO CBRT AND MTP FORECASTS
Alternative raise rates and base salaries calculated in line with different institutions' year-end inflation forecasts are shaping up as follows:
- CBRT Forecast (Year-End 28%): If six-month inflation is 8.70%, an inflation differential of 1.59% arises, and the total increase is calculated as 6.67%. In this scenario, the lowest civil servant salary reaches 74,908 TL, and the lowest retired civil servant pension reaches 33,631 TL.
- MTP Forecast (Year-End 28.4%): If six-month inflation comes out at 9.04%, with a 1.91% inflation differential and the collective agreement raise, the total increase remains at 7.00%. In this case, the lowest civil servant salary is 75,140 TL, and the lowest retired civil servant pension is 33,734 TL.
SALARY CALCULATION TABLE BY OCCUPATION
The new raised salary amounts calculated based on the CBRT (6.67%), MTP (7.00%), Market Survey (8.02%), AA Finans (8.05%), and FKE (8.66%) scenarios over current salaries are as follows:
Specialist Doctor (1/4) | Current: 170,730 TL
- 6.67%: 182,118 TL (+11,388 TL)
- 7.00%: 182,681 TL (+11,951 TL)
- 8.02%: 184,406 TL (+13,676 TL)
- 8.05%: 184,474 TL (+13,744 TL)
- 8.66%: 185,515 TL (+14,785 TL)
Professor (1/4) | Current: 153,208 TL
- 6.67%: 163,427 TL (+10,219 TL)
- 7.00%: 163,933 TL (+10,725 TL)
- 8.02%: 165,483 TL (+12,275 TL)
- 8.05%: 165,541 TL (+12,333 TL)
- 8.66%: 166,476 TL (+13,268 TL)
Engineer (1/4) | Current: 109,185 TL
- 6.67%: 116,468 TL (+7,283 TL)
- 7.00%: 116,828 TL (+7,643 TL)
- 8.02%: 117,931 TL (+8,748 TL)
- 8.05%: 117,974 TL (+8,789 TL)
- 8.66%: 118,640 TL (+9,455 TL)
Branch Manager (University Graduate - 1/4) | Current: 107,110 TL
- 6.67%: 114,254 TL (+7,144 TL)
- 7.00%: 114,608 TL (+7,498 TL)
- 8.02%: 115,693 TL (+8,583 TL)
- 8.05%: 115,732 TL (+8,622 TL)
- 8.66%: 116,386 TL (+9,276 TL)
Research Assistant (7/1) | Current: 102,779 TL
- 6.67%: 109,634 TL (+6,855 TL)
- 7.00%: 109,974 TL (+7,195 TL)
- 8.02%: 111,012 TL (+8,235 TL)
- 8.05%: 111,053 TL (+8,274 TL)
- 8.66%: 111,680 TL (+8,901 TL)
Lawyer (1/4) | Current: 102,135 TL
- 6.67%: 108,947 TL (+6,812 TL)
- 7.00%: 109,284 TL (+7,149 TL)
- 8.02%: 110,318 TL (+8,183 TL)
- 8.05%: 110,357 TL (+8,222 TL)
- 8.66%: 110,980 TL (+8,845 TL)
Chief Superintendent (3/1) | Current: 101,242 TL
- 6.67%: 107,995 TL (+6,753 TL)
- 7.00%: 108,329 TL (+7,087 TL)
- 8.02%: 109,354 TL (+8,112 TL)
- 8.05%: 109,392 TL (+8,150 TL)
- 8.66%: 110,010 TL (+8,768 TL)
Police Officer (8/1) | Current: 92,618 TL
- 6.67%: 98,796 TL (+6,178 TL)
- 7.00%: 99,101 TL (+6,483 TL)
- 8.02%: 100,041 TL (+7,423 TL)
- 8.05%: 100,074 TL (+7,456 TL)
- 8.66%: 100,639 TL (+8,021 TL)
Expert Teacher (1/4) | Current: 92,166 TL
- 6.67%: 98,313 TL (+6,147 TL)
- 7.00%: 98,618 TL (+6,452 TL)
- 8.02%: 99,557 TL (+7,391 TL)
- 8.05%: 99,585 TL (+7,419 TL)
- 8.66%: 100,148 TL (+7,982 TL)
Preacher (1/4) | Current: 86,983 TL
- 6.67%: 92,785 TL (+5,802 TL)
- 7.00%: 93,072 TL (+6,089 TL)
- 8.02%: 93,954 TL (+7,971 TL)
- 8.05%: 93,985 TL (+7,002 TL)
- 8.66%: 94,516 TL (+7,533 TL)
Nurse (University Graduate - 5/1) | Current: 84,845 TL
- 6.67%: 90,504 TL (+5,659 TL)
- 7.00%: 90,784 TL (+5,939 TL)
- 8.02%: 91,645 TL (+6,800 TL)
- 8.05%: 91,675 TL (+6,830 TL)
- 8.66%: 92,193 TL (+7,348 TL)
Teacher (1/4) | Current: 83,254 TL
- 6.67%: 88,807 TL (+5,553 TL)
- 7.00%: 89,082 TL (+5,828 TL)
- 8.02%: 89,927 TL (+6,673 TL)
- 8.05%: 89,956 TL (+6,702 TL)
- 8.66%: 90,464 TL (+7,210 TL)
Technician (High School Graduate - 11/1) | Current: 75,877 TL
- 6.67%: 80,938 TL (+5,061 TL)
- 7.00%: 81,188 TL (+5,311 TL)
- 8.02%: 81,959 TL (+6,082 TL)
- 8.05%: 81,985 TL (+6,108 TL)
- 8.66%: 82,448 TL (+6,571 TL)
Civil Servant (University Graduate - 9/1) | Current: 73,070 TL
- 6.67%: 77,944 TL (+4,874 TL)
- 7.00%: 78,185 TL (+5,115 TL)
- 8.02%: 78,929 TL (+5,859 TL)
- 8.05%: 78,952 TL (+5,882 TL)
- 8.66%: 79,398 TL (+6,328 TL)
- Lowest Civil Servant Salary | Current: 70,224 TL
- 6.67%: 74,908 TL (+4,684 TL)
- 7.00%: 75,140 TL (+4,916 TL)
- 8.02%: 75,856 TL (+5,632 TL)
- 8.05%: 75,877 TL (+5,653 TL)
- 8.66%: 76,305 TL (+6,081 TL)
(Note: All calculations in the table have been made based on the relevant raise rates over current salaries and may contain small differences due to rounding.)