27.08.2026 15:01
Wall Street research firm Bernstein announced two thresholds and two dates for Bitcoin. In the firm's base case scenario, the cryptocurrency reaches $125,000 by the close of 2026 and $150,000, a record level, by mid-2027.
The team led by Gautam Chhugani expects Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2026 in a client note dated August 26. The base case scenario is based on the assumption that the asset will maintain its historical four-year cycle.
The cycle's peak has also been calculated. Analysts placed the peak in 2029 at around $300,000 using a model tied to miners' marginal production costs.
In a second scenario, Bernstein predicts that currency debasement could accelerate the rally. In this case, Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029. The firm also maintained its long-term forecast of $1 million for the end of 2033.
None of these forecasts imply a guaranteed price path. Each is presented as an analyst projection.
The bond market forms the macroeconomic basis of the forecast. According to Chhugani, as the 40-year period of falling interest rates ends, U.S. public debt has reached $40 trillion. This picture increases the interest cost of federal debt.
Analysts explain the mechanism in the note with these words: "Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle. Interest expenses increase, budget deficits widen, and borrowing needs rise."
Bernstein's expectation arises from this. According to the firm, politicians may prefer to debase the currency rather than cut spending. Such an outcome could attract capital to assets that cannot be easily created or diluted. Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million units. Gold is also considered in this group.
According to Eric Balchunas, trading volume in investment products points to a trend of positioning against currency debasement. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and State Street's SPDR Gold Shares have returned to the top 10 most traded exchange-traded funds in the U.S. The two funds replaced some semiconductor funds that dominated the list during the summer.
THE DECLINE IN THIS CYCLE REMAINED AT 50%
Ownership structure forms Bernstein's second pillar. Analysts argue that participation in exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury purchases may have limited the recent decline.
In previous downturns, Bitcoin fell between 75% and 90% from its cycle peak. This time, it pulled back 50% from the October 2025 peak, then recovered 28% within 10 days.
On-chain data also points in the same direction. According to ownership data cited in the note, 59% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in the last 12 months. Bernstein considers this static balance evidence of a holder base willing to retain the asset despite sharp price fluctuations.
The U.S. Treasury's plan to increase bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion was also added to the picture.
MSTR TARGET CUT FROM $450 TO $350
Bernstein also updated its Strategy assessment in the same note. The firm maintained its above-index return expectation for the stock while cutting its price target from $450 to $350 per share.
Analysts cited the revised Bitcoin cycle model and accelerated share dilution as reasons for the reduction.
The new target implies a 176% upside from Strategy's August 25 close of $126.83.
According to Bernstein's estimate, the company's strengthened balance sheet provides enough cash to cover annual interest costs and preferred share dividends for 3.9 years. If Bitcoin gains continue and STRC preferred shares recover toward their $100 reference value, the company could resume aggressive purchases.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $79,496. The cryptocurrency rose to $79,865 during the day, approaching the $80,000 threshold. Bernstein's $125,000 year-end target stands about $45,500 above the current price.