The alarming earthquake warning: 24 provinces in Turkey are under great danger.

30.11.2024 14:00

While various regions in Turkey are experiencing tremors, a frightening statement has come from an expert. Experts have stated that there are 500 active faults in Turkey capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 and above, and they noted that 24 cities are located along these faults. It has been claimed that all 24 provinces are under constant threat, and it was also pointed out that the Kayapa-Yenişehir fault, which runs through Bursa, has been silent for 624 years.

While the fear of earthquakes is experienced in almost every region of Turkey, another alarming statement has emerged. An expert stated that there are 500 active faults in Turkey capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 and above, indicating that there are 24 cities across Turkey where these faults pass through.

Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir from Dokuzeylül University, Geology Engineer Aysun Aykan, and Prof. Dr. Abdullah Soykan, a faculty member at Balıkesir University and the President of the Edremit City Council, participated as speakers in the earthquake panel organized by the municipality in the Karacabey district of Bursa.

Speaking at the Karacabey Earthquake Panel, which addressed Turkey's seismicity and suitability for settlement, Geology Engineer Aysun Aykan stated that when examining Turkey's active fault map, there are approximately 500 active faults with the potential to produce earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 and above.

According to recent studies, Aykan reported that active faults pass through the city centers of 24 provinces, listing these provinces as Balıkesir, Bursa, Kocaeli, Bolu, Sakarya, Manisa, İzmir, Aydın, Muğla, Denizli, Burdur, Kütahya, Eskişehir, Konya, Aksaray, Tokat, Kayseri, Osmaniye, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Erzurum, Erzincan, Hakkari, and Bingöl.

"THERE ARE 20 FAULTS THAT ARE DUE TO BREAK"

Aykan stated, "24 of our cities and more than 110 of our districts are directly on fault lines; if these faults break, the structures on the fault zone will be damaged first. Particularly, those faults that are due to break, which we define as seismic gaps, pose a great risk as they pass through residential areas. There are approximately 20 faults in Turkey that we define as seismic gaps; that is, faults that are due to break, have accumulated sufficient stress, and could break at any moment. Scientific studies indicate that the faults in Bingöl, which is the head of the North Anatolian Fault, and the section of the North Anatolian Fault that passes through the Sea of Marmara, as well as the faults in Hakkari-Yüksekova, İzmir, Antakya, Adıyaman, Erzurum, Ağrı, Aydın, Denizli, and Muğla are evaluated as seismic gaps and are classified as faults that are likely to produce earthquakes in the near future. Similarly, the Balıkesir-Gökçeyazı Segment, which has the potential to produce an earthquake of magnitude 7.2, has not broken for 2,000 years; we need to pay particular attention to the dangers in these areas. There are many faults in Turkey that have reached their time to produce earthquakes and have accumulated sufficient stress. According to studies, these faults evaluated as seismic gaps indicate that there will be another earthquake in the near future; however, we cannot know the exact time of the earthquake. On February 6 in Kahramanmaraş, earthquakes of magnitudes 7.7 and 7.6 occurred. Our country experienced a disaster with this earthquake. We had repeatedly stated that there could be a major earthquake in Kahramanmaraş, that it was evaluated as a seismic gap, and that attention should be paid to these areas," he said.

"A 7.6 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE MAY OCCUR IN THE MARMARA SEA"

When looking at the earthquake distributions of the North Anatolian Fault in the northern branch that passes through the Sea of Marmara, Geology Engineer Aysun Aykan noted that the last earthquakes occurred in 1509 and 1766, and considering that the recurrence periods are thought to be 200-250 years, this area should be evaluated as a seismic gap. "All provinces along the coast of the Marmara Sea will be severely affected by a major earthquake here. Especially the earthquake that occurred in 1766 was felt over a wide geography from Austria to Italy and caused destruction throughout the Marmara Region. Just think, the repetition of such an earthquake would cause a lot of destruction throughout the Marmara Region. According to national and international studies; after the 1999 earthquake, there was a 65% probability that an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater would occur in the Marmara Sea within 30 years. 25 years have passed since this period. This earthquake will never wait for 60 years; this time is approaching. Statistically, a major earthquake occurs every 7 years in our country. Already, an earthquake greater than 7 occurs around Marmara every 50 years; therefore, we would not be surprised even if it happens now," he said.

"THE FAULT IN BURSA HAS BEEN QUIET FOR 624 YEARS"

Aykan continued: "According to past records, the last damaging earthquake in Bursa occurred in 1855, which is known among the public as the 'Little Apocalypse,' causing significant destruction; nearly all minarets of 150 mosques were destroyed, 2 domes of the Grand Mosque collapsed, historical buildings and official institutions were destroyed, fires broke out in the city, and there were casualties and economic losses. As a result of a joint study conducted by Ankara University, Kocaeli University, and Eskişehir Technical University, a new fault has been discovered in Bursa. The Kayapa - Yenişehir Fault, which passes through the city center of Bursa, is not shown on the current active fault map. According to these studies, it is thought that the source of the earthquakes that occurred in 1855 was in the western section of the Kayapa-Yenişehir Fault (KYF), and that the earthquake that occurred in 1400 took place in the Yenişehir section of the KYF. It has been 624 years since the earthquake in 1400. It is stated that an earthquake here has the potential to be over 7."

"THERE ARE MANY FAULT LINES PASSING THROUGH BURSA"

Pointing out that paleoseismological studies, which examine the recurrence periods of a fault, the magnitudes of earthquakes it has produced, and briefly analyze the fault's past behavior to determine future earthquake hazards, have not been conducted in Bursa, Aykan stated that there are many fault lines in Bursa. There should not be buildings on fault lines. It is necessary to study how many buildings are on fault lines. There are fault lines passing through almost every district of the 17 districts in Bursa. Micro-zoning studies, where all disaster risks are indicated on maps, must be carried out. Such a study has not yet been conducted in Bursa," he said.

Prof. Dr. Abdullah Soykan, a faculty member at Balıkesir University, also drew attention to the seismicity of Karacabey and its surrounding areas, providing detailed information about the earthquakes that have occurred in Karacabey and its vicinity. Focusing on the geological and geomorphological characteristics of Karacabey and how they would behave during a major earthquake, Prof. Dr. Abdullah Soykan stated, "We urgently need to implement the lessons learned from the great disaster our country experienced on February 6, 2023. We must take all necessary precautions as soon as possible before a major earthquake, which is highly likely to occur in Istanbul and the Marmara Sea."