03.11.2026 16:35
In the midterm elections to be held in the US today, voters are going to the polls for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. While the latest polls indicate that Republicans may lose their majority in both chambers of Congress, Turkey is also closely following the elections. It is assessed that a Democrat-dominated Congress could make the process more difficult for Ankara on issues such as CAATSA sanctions, the F-35, and arms sales.
Midterm elections held in the middle of US President Donald Trump’s second term could change the balance of power in Washington. It is noted that the election results may also affect the Trump administration’s foreign policy over the next two years.
“LAME DUCK” POSSIBILITY
Republican Party candidate Trump, after his election victory in 2016 and defeat in 2020, was re-elected in 2024 and took the presidential seat for a second time on January 20, 2025. Recent public opinion polls show that Republicans face the risk of losing their majority in both chambers of Congress.
If this scenario materializes, Trump will have to work with a Congress in which Democrats hold the majority during the last two years of his term. In American domestic politics, the term “lame duck” is used for presidents who find themselves in this situation and whose legislative power and political influence are diminished.
COMMENTS ON HARDENING IN FOREIGN POLICY
Some news reports and commentaries in the US press suggest that after a possible election defeat, Trump could turn toward a more aggressive and active foreign policy. According to these commentaries, military activity toward Iran could come back onto the agenda. Among the commentaries is also the view that Trump’s disagreement with Europe over security could deepen, and that he could clash with NATO countries over military aid to Ukraine and relations with Russia.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement on October 31, said that even if the majority in Congress is lost, the Trump administration’s foreign policy will not change. Rubio emphasized that the responsibility for making and implementing foreign policy belongs to the central government.
TÜRKİYE IS ALSO WATCHING CLOSELY
It is noted that the personal relationship between Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will continue to be a fundamental mechanism in Türkiye-US relations. However, it is assessed that Türkiye may also be affected by the election results due to processes requiring congressional approval and regional developments. This effect is expected to be seen most concretely in the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions, which Türkiye has long sought to have lifted.
The US first removed Türkiye, which deployed the S-400 air defense systems it bought from Russia on its territory in 2019, from the joint F-35 fighter jet project, and then imposed CAATSA sanctions in 2020.
TRUMP HAD SAID “THE TIME HAS COME”
During his visit to Ankara in July for the NATO Summit, Trump said that the US did not want to impose sanctions on its friends and that the time had come to lift the CAATSA sanctions. Trump also stated that he had not yet made a decision on the F-35 sale but that he viewed the matter positively. However, since the NATO Summit, there has been no positive development on either issue.
CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL IS REQUIRED FOR THE SANCTIONS TO BE LIFTED
Although Republicans hold a majority in both chambers of Congress, there are two important reasons why Trump cannot lift the sanctions. The first is that Türkiye still keeps the S-400 systems in its inventory and on its territory. The other is that there is a negative perception of Türkiye in both the Republican and Democratic sides of Congress.
Türkiye’s recently strained relations with Israel, the processes with Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, and issues related to human rights and freedom of expression are from time to time raised by members of Congress and conveyed to the White House in letters. For this reason, it is noted that the majority in Congress passing entirely to the Democrats could make the process of lifting the CAATSA sanctions in particular even more difficult.
For the sanctions to be lifted, first Türkiye needs to remove the S-400 systems from its inventory and send them to another country. Then, for the sanctions to be permanently lifted, a legal amendment must be made and pass Congress. CAATSA also gives the US President the authority to temporarily suspend the sanctions. However, for Trump to use this authority, he must submit a comprehensive report based on concrete developments to Congress.
A LEGAL CHANGE IS ALSO REQUIRED FOR THE F-35
Another issue that Türkiye attaches importance to is returning to the F-35 program, from which it was removed in 2019, or purchasing some of these aircraft. Ankara had paid for 6 fighter jets before being removed from the program. These aircraft are still being kept in hangars in the US.
The US Congress, with an article it added to the National Defense Authorization Act in 2020, banned the sale of F-35s to Türkiye because it possesses the S-400 systems. Therefore, a legal amendment is also required to overcome the F-35 problem. President Erdoğan, in statements after his meeting with Trump, said that the US President had given his word on these issues and that as Türkiye they expect these promises to be kept.
CONCERN ALSO OVER KAAN ENGINES
It is assessed that the majority in Congress passing to the Democrats could also make approval processes for arms sales to Türkiye more difficult, especially for the engines required for the KAAN fighter jet. If the Democrats win the election, they will take control of important committees, especially the Foreign Relations Committee. These committees play a critical role in overseeing important foreign policy decisions, particularly arms sales.
Israel and Greece are also expected to increase their pressure on the new Congress regarding arms sales to Türkiye through their lobbies in the US. In past years, the two countries had pressured both the White House and Congress to prevent F-16 and F-35 sales to Türkiye. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had requested that the F-35 sale not take place on the grounds that it would upset the balance of power in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean in Türkiye’s favor, while Trump had said, “No one can tell me who I can or cannot sell to.”
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW ATTACK ON IRAN ON THE AGENDA
In Trump’s recent statements, the emphasis came to the fore that after the midterm elections he would turn again to the Iran issue and could take much harsher military measures if Tehran does not agree to a deal. Türkiye, for its part, is among the countries making diplomatic efforts to prevent the war in the region from restarting.
Iran was also among the topics discussed in Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s meeting with Rubio in Washington last week. President Erdoğan, in his recent statements, also warned against the US-Iran war restarting, saying, “Our hope is that all steps that would drag our region into violence are avoided. We do not want to pay the price for conflicts started by others either.”
It is stated that Netanyahu, who did not get the result he wanted in the elections in Israel, is pressuring Trump for a new military operation. It is assessed that this situation increases the possibility of a new military tension arising in the region. In the war that the US and Israel started on February 28, Iran sent missiles to countries in the region where US bases are located, and missiles heading toward Turkish airspace were destroyed by NATO defense systems.
.