30.06.2012 13:50
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has stated that Turkey has no "Plan B" for Syria.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has stated that Turkey has no "Plan B" for Syria. The only feasible plan for Turkey is one where Bashar al-Assad is removed from Syria. For Turkey it is impossible for Assad to remain in power and normalize relations with Turkey.
This plan has major flaws. First, Turkey is not a game changer in the region and it does not know how long Assad will remain in power. Because of this very approach, Turkey and Syria have been in a form of cold war for the past 16 months. This cold war has become one of the sources of high-level stress in Turkey's domestic and regional policies.
With this approach, Turkey not only relates its own internal problems, such as the Kurdish question, to Syria but regional problems as well. Worse, Turkey does not have any effective tool to solve this problem nor does it know when it will be solved.
Related to this, Turkey has been making more and more mistakes while the Assad regime remains in power. For instance, Turkey wants to solve its problem with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) through negotiations because the authorities feel Turkey is trapped and want to take a quick approach to negotiations, and are thus unable to see some of the same elements within and close to the PKK who do not allow for negotiations or solving the problem.
Turkey does not fully trust the West and does not know if the West will support Turkey should it enter into a war to remove Assad from power. Thus, Turkey remains ambivalent toward the Syrian regime and Western countries. It badly wants to remove the Syrian regime, but what would happen if Turkey took military action against Syria? More importantly, the West has some questions about Turkey, too. The "one minute" crisis at Davos and Turkey's policy of supporting Iran in the UN Security Council have created question marks about the Turkish government. The West, too, does not fully trust Turkey and does not know what Turkey would do if the Assad regime was removed from power. Furthermore, as time passes, those who trust Turkey lose their faith and this puts further stress on Turkey.
With the recent downing of its jet, Turkey now has a major image crisis. It needs to do something to save its image as a regional player. Yet, Turkey has major obstacles before it. On the one hand Iran has already declared its position and stated that if a country waged a war against Syria, Iran would consider it an attack on itself. Yet, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan makes aggressive statements, threatens Syria and mobilizes people's hope and expectations behind him with empty promises. Thus, policymakers yet again feel ambivalent about taking action against Assad's regime and an uphill fight in Syria.
In addition, a fragmented and leaderless opposition against the Assad regime inside Syria makes the West feel reluctant. Who would lead Syria and how would the new government feel about the West and Israel? Because of the many unknowns, it is very likely that Turkey's animosity toward Syria will not produce any tangible result in the coming months or even years. This could create extra stress on Turkish leaders.
All of this is why Turkey has entered into a ditch after Davutoğlu's attempt to "anticipate" developments before they happen. As time passes Turkey's loss will be greater. Now Turkey acts like a puzzled player, saying: Deal or no deal?
EMRE USLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)