03.05.2026 03:24
Prof. Dr. Murat Türkeş from Boğaziçi University highlighted that the country may experience a strong El Niño effect this summer. Türkeş said, 'Especially in inland continental regions, Central Anatolia, Southwestern Anatolia, and Southeastern Anatolia, similar to last year at some stations, there is a possibility of breaking high temperature records in Turkey this year as well.'
Prof. Dr. Murat, a member of the Board of Directors of the Bogazici University Climate Change and Policies Application and Research Center, stated that autumn and winter precipitation in Turkey has been gradually decreasing in recent years. Prof. Dr. Turkes said, "With increasing temperatures and evaporation, changing precipitation patterns, and rising aridity together with temperature, according to moderate and very pessimistic climate scenarios after 2040, there is a possibility of fully arid climate conditions, which do not currently exist in Turkey, to emerge. This means that geographically, the drying of Turkey's climate will lead to fully arid land conditions, similar to arid and desert climates, forming over large areas."
"DESERT CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN TURKEY IN THE 2040s"
Stating that the fully arid desert-like conditions currently prevailing in northern Syria could also occur in Turkey by the 2040s, Prof. Dr. Turkes said, "A semi-arid steppe climate is currently observed along the Turkey-Syria border. If climate change continues at this pace, with rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, and decreasing soil moisture, there is a possibility that the arid, even desert-like climate of northern Syria could encroach into Turkey, creating a climatologically arid region in the wide southern part of Southeastern Anatolia, including Turkey's grain belt, the Konya Basin, as well as the central and southern parts of Central Anatolia, and even in the Inner Western Anatolia and Thrace. This would mean that Turkey could become a country experiencing physical and economic water scarcity, potentially becoming water-poor over time, and facing challenges in terms of food security."
"HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD ALSO BE BROKEN THIS YEAR"
Noting that the upward trend in surface temperatures continues, Prof. Dr. Turkes drew attention to the strong possibility of an El Nino this year. Turkes said, "With the observed long-term warming, climate change, and El Nino, air temperatures could also exceed normal levels in many places this year. As in recent years, starting from the end of June, especially in inland continental regions, Central Anatolia, Southwestern Anatolia, and Southeastern Anatolia, there is a possibility that high temperature records could be broken this year as well, just like last year."
"FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, DURATION, AND AREA OF IMPACT ARE INCREASING"
Stating that in recent years, heatwaves coming from North Africa via the Balkans have greatly affected the Aegean region, Prof. Dr. Turkes said, "In Manisa, Izmir, Aydin, Denizli, and occasionally in districts of Mugla, temperatures higher than those in Southeastern Anatolia can be recorded. The increase in temperatures intensifies summer drought and the new fire regime, or makes it more effective, increasing the frequency, intensity, duration, and area of impact of forest fires. It places excessive pressure on water resources. There is a drying of the soil. Therefore, the long-term increase in temperatures does not only result in high air temperatures and heatwaves. Heatwaves, the intensification of summer drought, can make the fire regime much more severe. When long-term drought and summer heat combine, irrigation water issues arise in agriculture. To be less affected by all these adversities, it is necessary to develop integrated water resources, drought, and forest fire management, along with making agricultural systems, soil, and water resources sustainable and climate-resilient."