14.11.2026 01:30
The polar vortex spinning over the Arctic broke down at the earliest date on record and its winds changed direction. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts described this as the earliest observed disruption, and Meteo-France called it an unprecedented event. Scientists said the development increased the likelihood of a cold wave in the US, Europe, and East Asia, while the UK Met Office emphasized that severe cold was not certain.
According to DW, the cold air band revolving above the North Pole and known as the "polar vortex" broke down this year at an unprecedented earliness. Observations show that the vortex's winds changed direction. Scientists say this is the earliest reversal on record.
Tim Stockdale and Frederic Vitart of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said in a statement to AFP, "To our knowledge, this is the earliest observed stratospheric vortex disruption." France's meteorological agency Meteo-France also described the situation as "an unprecedented event."
Climate scientist Judah Cohen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) said the vortex's early breakup "really increases the likelihood of a cold air outbreak at the most densely populated latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, such as the US, Europe, and East Asia."
WHAT IS THE POLAR VORTEX?
The polar vortex is a giant band of cold, low-pressure air circulating counterclockwise around the North Pole at an altitude of about 10 to 50 kilometers above the ground. When the vortex is in a tight ring, it keeps the coldest air at the pole; when it weakens and becomes wavy, it can change the position of the jet stream immediately below it and allow freezing Arctic air to move south.
One of the most important causes of such disruptions is "sudden stratospheric warming." A rapid rise in temperature in the polar stratosphere within a few days weakens the vortex's westerly winds; the vortex can shift from its place, break into pieces, or, as is currently happening, the winds can change direction. It can take several weeks for the vortex to recover.
IT ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN THE 2021 TEXAS COLD
A previous polar vortex disruption contributed to the major freezing cold in the US state of Texas in February 2021 that lasted more than a week, caused power outages, and led to hundreds of deaths.
SEVERE WINTER IS NOT CERTAIN
However, severe cold is not certain. The UK Met Office emphasizes that the change in the vortex may increase the likelihood of cold weather, but it is not a switch that turns the cold on and off. Cohen also said that El Nino, which is currently strengthening and is associated with milder winters, may ease the effects, but that this is not certain.
Some research links the rapidly warming Arctic due to climate change with an increase in disruptions to the polar vortex; however, this connection is still debated among scientists.
Source: DW