01.12.2025 09:35
While the year-end inflation is expected to be around 31 percent, expert Özgür Erdursun states that a total increase of 31 percent will be made for SSK-Bağkur retirees, and nearly 40 percent for civil servant retirees. The strongest scenario for the minimum wage is a 25 percent increase. However, it is noted that all these increases are not sufficient to enhance purchasing power in the face of high inflation.
While Turkey is focused on year-end inflation, the salary increase expectations of millions of workers and retirees are also becoming clearer. With the CPI reaching 28.62% in the first 10 months and a 1% increase expected in November and December, the year-end inflation will be 31.2%. Thus, the government's announced annual target of 31% will largely be met.
EXPECTED INCREASE IN RETIREES' SALARIES
According to the calculations of SGK Expert Özgür Erdursun, in a scenario of 31% inflation at the end of the year:
- SSK–Bağkur retirees: 12–13% inflation difference
- Public employees and public employee retirees: 19–20% difference + 1,000 TL additional payment
According to this table, the total annual increase is:
- SSK–Bağkur retiree: 31%
- Public retiree: around 40%
However, Erdursun emphasizes that although the increase rates "look high on paper, they do not increase purchasing power."
SCENARIO FOR THE LOWEST RETIREMENT SALARY
The current lowest retirement salary is 16,881 TL.
- With a 12–13% increase, the salary will rise to the 19,000 TL range.
- If a possible 6-point welfare share is added, the lowest salary could reach 20,250 TL.
NOTABLE INCREASE RATE IN MINIMUM WAGE
The minimum wage, which will not see an interim increase in 2024, is at the level of 22,104 TL.
- Although economic indicators technically point to a 16–20% increase,
- due to the rapid increase in rent, food, and clothing prices, a 25% increase is the strongest possibility.
In this case, the new net minimum wage will rise to the range of 27,500–28,000 TL.
RECORD INCREASE IN THE LAST 5 YEARS BUT REAL LOSS
The minimum wage has increased nominally 8 times in 5 years, but purchasing power has not risen at the same pace against the cost of living.
Change by years:
- 2021: 2,825 TL
- 2022: 4,253 TL → 5,500 TL
- 2023: 8,506 TL → 11,402 TL
- 2024: 17,002 TL
- 2025: 22,104 TL
CONCLUSION: THERE ARE INCREASES, BUT THE SHADOW OF INFLATION CONTINUES
According to Erdursun, in the new year:
- SSK–Bağkur retiree: 31% increase
- Public retiree: nearly 40% increase
- Minimum wage: 25% increase
However, these rates are also insufficient to compensate for the losses caused by inflation. When the inflation for November and December is announced, the new salaries of millions will officially be revealed at the end of December.