02.05.2025 10:32
The U.S. employment data, which will be announced today at 3:30 PM Turkey time, is of great importance for global markets and especially for the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The released data is expected to have an impact on stock prices, gold, and currency rates.
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The eagerly awaited development in the markets today will be the US non-farm payroll data. It is considered that the employment data to be announced by the US could cause volatility in the dollar, gold, and stock markets. For this reason, expectations regarding the direction of the data are being eagerly awaited by investors and economists.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions
According to the predictions of 68 economists worldwide, the expectations for non-farm payroll growth for April 2025 range between 50,000 and 171,000. The median expectation is at 135,000. The NFP data announced in March was 228,000, exceeding expectations. This strong performance indicates that a similar increase may occur in April as well. However, signals of a slowdown in the economy and uncertainties stemming from tariffs may lead to a slight decrease in employment growth.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EXPECTATIONS
Market expectations for the unemployment rate range between 4.1% and 4.3%. The median forecast is at 4.2%. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in March. This rate indicates a slight easing in the labor market.
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Wage increases are an important indicator for assessing inflationary pressures. In March, average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 3.8% on an annual basis. A similar increase in April may indicate that inflationary pressures are ongoing.
HOW WILL MARKETS BE AFFECTED?
Considering the latest economic data and market expectations, the April 2025 employment data is likely to materialize as follows:
Non-Farm Payroll: Approximately 150,000 increase
Unemployment Rate: Remain stable at 4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings: Monthly increase of 0.3%, annual increase of 3.8%
These data will play an important role in shaping the Fed's monetary policy. An employment increase that exceeds expectations may signal the Fed to keep interest rates steady or raise them, while data that falls below expectations may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts. The employment data to be announced today will be decisive for both the health of the US economy and the risk appetite in global markets. Following the announcement of the data, volatility in the markets may increase, so it is advised that investors remain cautious.
HERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS:
If the Data Matches Expectations
Gold will be slightly positively affected as concerns about interest rates remaining high for a longer period decrease. This increases the appeal of gold, which does not yield interest.
If the Data Exceeds Expectations
Gold will remain under pressure as high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Prices may drop below $2300.
If the Data Falls Below Expectations
Gold will move strongly upward. Demand for safe havens increases, and interest rate cuts are priced in. Prices may test $2350 and above.
NOTE: This news content is not investment advice. Serious losses may occur if buying and selling is done based on this information. Professional consulting services can be obtained for investment. Investors should not make buying and selling decisions based on the information in this text.
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