28.11.2025 17:10
The inflation expectation of economists for November has been set at 1.31%. If this prediction comes true, the increase rate for SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees will rise to 11.69%, while the increase rate for civil servants and retired civil servants will reach 18.07%. The exact figures will be determined by the inflation rate in December.
As the countdown continues for the 2025 salary increase rate for civil servants and retirees, the results of the AA Finance's inflation expectation survey for November have been announced. Significant predictions emerged from the survey participated by 32 economists ahead of the November data to be released by the Turkish Statistical Institute on December 3.
NOVEMBER INFLATION EXPECTATION: %1.31
The average monthly inflation expectation of economists for November was %1.31.
Predictions varied between %1 and %1.65.
According to this prediction:
- The annual inflation, which was %32.87 in October,
- May decrease to %31.65 in November.
END OF 2025 INFLATION EXPECTATION: %31.89
The inflation forecast for the end of 2025 by economists was formed at %31.89 as of November. The prediction range varied between %31 and %32.51.
HOW ARE SALARIES FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND RETIREES DETERMINED?
SSK and BAĞ-KUR Retirees
The salary increase rate for the second half of 2025 will be determined based on the 6-month inflation for the July-December period. Currently, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees have guaranteed a %10.25 increase based on the total inflation for the first four months. If the November inflation comes in line with expectations at %1.31, this rate will rise to %11.69.
Civil Servants and Civil Servant Retirees
Civil servants:
- Will receive a %11 increase from the collective agreement,
- In addition, they will receive an inflation difference.
Based on the data for the first four months, civil servants and civil servant retirees have guaranteed a %16.56 increase.
If the November inflation comes as expected, the increase rate will be %18.07.
The definitive increase rate will be clarified with the announcement of the December inflation.
EYES TURNED TO NEXT WEEK
After the 4-month salary differences, attention has turned to the inflation figures for November and December. The November inflation will be announced next Wednesday.
WHAT WILL BE THE LOWEST RETIREMENT SALARY?
In previous periods, legal regulations increased the lowest retirement salary according to the inflation rate. Currently, approximately 4 million 10 thousand retirees receive a base monthly salary of 16,881 TL.
Retirees with low base salaries will continue to receive the current base salary even after the increase based on the inflation rate. Therefore, it is considered that the government may take a new improvement step regarding the lowest retirement salary.
WHAT WILL BE THE LOWEST SALARY FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND CIVIL SERVANT RETIREES?