11.11.2026 17:41
While millions of retirees have their eyes on the increase to be made to their salaries in January, a striking assessment came from SGK Chief Expert İsa Karakaş. Stating that he expects an inflation difference of 10.62 percent for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, Karakaş predicted that instead of a flat-rate raise, a proportional welfare share of at most around 5 percent could be given. Karakaş said that the minimum wage could rise to 36,500 TL.
Millions of retirees are eagerly awaiting the increase to be made to their salaries in January. While wage increase expectations are being closely followed, new assessments regarding retirement salaries are also coming to the agenda. In particular, while it is wondered whether an additional improvement will be made to the inflation difference, possible regulations aimed at increasing retirees' purchasing power are being discussed.
Türkiye newspaper columnist and SGK Chief Expert İsa Karakaş, who participated in the live broadcast on TGRT Haber, shared his predictions on how the retiree increase could take shape. Speaking especially about the additional increase and the increase rate, Karakaş drew attention to the possibility of granting a proportional welfare share instead of a flat-rate increase.
"WE EXPECT AN UPDATE OF 10.62 PERCENT"
Karakaş, who made assessments regarding the inflation-related salary increases for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, explained the rates that could emerge if no additional improvement is made. Karakaş said, "We expect an update of 10.62% for SSK and Bağkur retirees. Look, I am not saying an increase; I am saying an update. In other words, let's call it compensation for losses, the inflation difference. For civil servants and retired civil servants, it is 8.56%. In other words, these are the figures if there is no improvement."
"THE ADDITIONAL INCREASE WILL BE PROPORTIONAL, NOT FLAT-RATE"
Predicting that the additional increase that could be made to retirees would be proportional, not flat-rate, Karakaş also shared his calculations based on the budget. Drawing attention to the fact that the cost of a flat-rate increase is quite high, Karakaş argued that if an equal amount of increase were made to all retirees, the allocated resources would be exhausted in a short time.
Karakaş used the following statements: "I calculated the cost of the flat-rate increase. The budget allocated to SGK in the budget totals 2 trillion 266 billion 365 million 277 thousand. If there is a flat-rate increase of 15,000 TL, this budget will last only 3 months; if a flat-rate increase of 10,000 TL is given to all retirees, this budget will last only 4 months and 17 days. If 5,000 TL is given, this budget will last only 9 months and 4 days. And in this given budget, at best, according to my calculations, a flat-rate increase of 3,805 TL can be given to all retirees without exception. Only 3,805 TL. However, the increase will not be a fixed amount. It will be a proportional welfare share."
"AT MOST, AN INCREASE OF AROUND 5 PERCENT CAN BE MADE"
Karakaş, who also evaluated the possibility of granting an additional welfare share to retirees in January in addition to the inflation difference, stated that this increase could remain below expectations. He expressed that retirees expect a significant improvement in their salaries, but the picture that emerges could cause disappointment. Karakaş said, "When we come to the New Year, retirees will definitely be disappointed. They will say this: look, there is an inflation of around 10 percent. We will give an additional 5 percent. Therefore, it will again not be enough for retirees. My prediction is that they can make a proportional increase of at most around 5% at the New Year."
According to Karakaş's estimate, the additional improvement that could be made to retirees will be reflected in salaries at a certain rate instead of a fixed amount. However, the rates in question have not yet been finalized and do not constitute an official increase decision.
ESTIMATE OF 36,500 TL FOR THE MINIMUM WAGE
Karakaş, who also explained his expectations regarding the minimum wage increase in addition to retirement salaries, stated that he foresees an increase of around 30 percent in the new year. Also drawing attention to employer costs, Karakaş expressed that employers could be relieved with minimum wage support. Karakaş used the following statements: "The cost of the minimum wage to the employer is 53,137. According to my calculations, the minimum wage will be a figure of around 36,500 TL. I expect an increase of around 30 percent. Employers will be relieved with minimum wage support."
The exact rate of the increase to be made to retirement salaries will become clear with the announcement of the year's final inflation data. Whether a welfare share will be granted in addition to the inflation difference will depend on the decisions to be taken.