02.06.2026 21:50
The escalating US/Israel-Iran war in the Middle East has triggered a supply crisis in global commodity markets. With the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical logistics routes, nearing closure and production facilities in the United Arab Emirates damaged, the price of aluminum per ton surged to $3,734 on the London Metal Exchange, reaching its highest level since March 2022.
The sharp rises in oil prices since the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran have triggered concerns that inflationary pressures will increase, while severe fluctuations in the commodity market continue.
With ongoing uncertainties regarding negotiations between the US and Iran and continued conflict in the region, aluminum stands out as one of the most affected products.
SUPPLY CONCERNS HAVE INCREASED ITS VALUE
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the annual aluminum production and exports of Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, totaling around 6.2 million tons, are at risk. These three countries have an 80% share of aluminum exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
After the US/Israel-Iran war began, the Al Taweelah facility owned by Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was damaged in attacks by Iranian missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the Khalifa Economic Zone, significantly increasing supply concerns.
Even before the war began, there were supply shortages in the global aluminum market, and after the war, supply shortages became more severe. This clearly indicated that the Strait of Hormuz is extremely critical for global raw material markets beyond oil and natural gas. Developments regarding the passage of tankers and ships through the strait are expected to be decisive on aluminum prices.
Aluminum is used in the production of automobiles, aircraft, and construction materials. Meanwhile, China's ongoing demand is causing movements in the aluminum market.
SAW ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN 4 YEARS
With these developments, the price of aluminum per ton rose to $3,734 on the London Metal Exchange, the highest level since March 2022, as risks from the US/Israel-Iran war again caused supply concerns, before stabilizing at $3,716.
Aluminum prices have increased by over 18% since the war began.
CHINA'S CAP ON ALUMINUM PRODUCTION HAS AFFECTED PRICE MOVEMENTS
Zafer Ergezen, an expert in futures and commodity markets, said in an evaluation to AA correspondent, "One of the most important reasons for the rise in aluminum prices is the negative impact on aluminum supply due to the war."
Ergezen stated that the Middle East and Gulf region accounts for 8-9% of global aluminum production and noted that aluminum supply has been negatively affected due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ergezen said that when demand is strong and supply decreases, upward price movements in aluminum are supported.
“AS LONG AS THE WAR CONTINUES, THIS STRONG PRICE TREND WILL CONTINUE”
Ergezen predicted that as long as the war continues, this strong price trend will continue, emphasizing that data centers, artificial intelligence infrastructure, the renewable energy sector, and electric vehicles have recently supported aluminum demand.
Ergezen said: "Beyond all this, electricity costs also affect aluminum prices. 30% to 40% of the cost in aluminum production comes from electricity costs. The recent increase in energy costs is leading to a rise in aluminum costs. This is another factor pulling prices up. China is the world's largest producer of aluminum. China has imposed a cap on aluminum production. Due to this cap, when demand increases, supply does not support it."