14.10.2026 11:52
The countdown has begun for the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which are expected to directly shape the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Ahead of the data to be announced at 15:30, while spot gold continues its cautious course in a narrow band; a possible slowdown or rise in inflation will change the balances in the markets and set a new direction for gold prices.
A calm course is being observed in gold prices ahead of critical macroeconomic data expected to shape the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy. Markets are focused on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures to be announced on Wednesday.
CALM COURSE AHEAD OF CRITICAL DATA
A clear search for direction did not stand out in the market before the data. While spot gold displayed a flat chart at $4,159.45 per ounce, US December gold futures traded at $4,182.60 with a limited increase of 0.1%. This picture in the markets revealed that investors preferred to wait for inflation data before taking large positions.
GOLD SEEKS A NEW REASON FOR A RALLY
Ilya Spivak, Head of Global Macro at tastylive, stated that gold prices have become stuck in a certain price range. Noting that gold maintained its current levels despite developments pushing oil prices higher, Spivak said the precious metal needs strong justifications to gain new upward momentum.
CRITICAL ANNOUNCEMENT AT 15:30 TURKISH TIME
The US CPI data, which is critically important for the markets, will be announced today at 15:30 Turkish time (GMT+3). Investors will closely monitor not only the course of inflation but also the growth and consumption dynamics of the US economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data to be announced throughout the week will also shape expectations regarding the interest rate path.
SIGNS OF A SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMY COULD BENEFIT GOLD
Analyst Spivak said that if the economic data to be announced indicates a slowdown in growth, markets could scale back their forecasts for a possible additional interest rate hike from the Fed. A decrease in interest rate hike pressure, meanwhile, could stand out as a supporting factor for gold prices.
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS PUSHED OIL HIGHER
Besides the economic data agenda, developments on the geopolitical side also enlivened commodity markets. As clashes between Houthi forces in Yemen and Saudi Arabia escalated, an administrative building belonging to Saudi Aramco in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, was attacked. The attack, confirmed by the Saudi Ministry of Energy, triggered a rise in oil prices.