16.03.2025 19:30
The statements made by Prof. Dr. Celal Şengör regarding the anticipated Great Istanbul Earthquake have sparked discussions. Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş and expert paleoseismologist and geoscientist Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş reacted to Şengör's words, "Those who survive will wish they had died."
Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş and expert paleoseismologist and geoscientist Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş reacted to Prof. Dr. Celal Şengör's statement regarding the Istanbul earthquake, "Those who survive will wish they had died."
Prof. Dr. Celal Şengör made statements regarding the expected Big Istanbul Earthquake, indicating that an earthquake greater than 7 is anticipated, and said, "Hunger will begin in the city within a few days, looting will occur, and epidemics will arise. The rubble will not be cleared for a long time, and the city will be enveloped in a heavy odor. Those who survive will say, 'I wish we had died.'
"IT WILL ONLY CAUSE HARM"
Şengör's words sparked a debate in the scientific community. Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş responded to Şengör's statement on his social media account by sharing a map.
In his post, Demirtaş stated, "Earthquake science cannot be done with finger counting, but chaos can be written," and added, "These scenarios have no contribution to risk reduction and loss of life from psychological, economic, sociological, strategic, environmental, educational, tourism, etc. perspectives, other than causing harm, and they cannot."
"DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH SCIENTIFIC FACTS"
Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş also reacted to Şengör's statements. Bektaş pointed out that earthquake science can only speak with concrete data, expressing that there are many uncertainties regarding the characteristics of the fault lines in Marmara.
Stating that "Not only are fault models uncertain, but also the annual slip rate of each segment, the recurrence intervals of earthquakes, and the elapsed times are not clear," Bektaş said, "The recurrence period of earthquakes cannot be determined with average data. The earthquake hazard in Marmara has not yet been resolved."
Bektaş noted that Şengör's statement, "Those who live will regret what they have experienced," does not coincide with scientific facts, and said that the greatest threat to Istanbul may not be a massive earthquake, but rather a medium-sized earthquake, stating, "Some parts of the Main Marmara Fault accumulate earthquake energy, but creeping or fully sliding parts do not accumulate earthquake energy. Therefore, medium-sized earthquakes can threaten Istanbul."