20.03.2026 23:21
The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings reported that if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for 6 months, the price of Brent crude oil could average $120 per barrel this year.
Fitch Ratings announced that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for 6 months could raise the price of Brent crude oil to an average of 120 dollars per barrel in 2026. The effects and expectations of the closure durations were detailed.
EXPECTATION OF 120 DOLLARS REGARDING OIL PRICES
In a statement from Fitch, scenarios regarding the impact of possible closure durations of the Strait of Hormuz on oil prices were shared. It was stated that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed for 6 months, the price of Brent crude oil could reach an average of 120 dollars per barrel in 2026, and in the case of a 3-month closure, it could reach 100 dollars.
In the scenario of a 3-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it was expressed that the price of Brent crude oil is expected to rise to an average of 130 dollars during the closure period and to decline to around 90 dollars towards the end of the year. In the 6-month closure scenario, it was projected that the price would soar to a range of 130-170 dollars during the closure period and drop to around 90 dollars by the end of the year.
EXPECTATION FOR 2026 IS 70 DOLLARS
The statement noted that the basic expectation for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 is 70 dollars, recalling that this estimate was 63 dollars due to the oversupply in the market before the war.
It was emphasized in the statement that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to lead to a daily loss of 15 million barrels in oil transit volume, while it was indicated that very small volumes are expected to continue passing through the Strait.
The statement noted that fluctuations in oil prices will continue, the geopolitical risk premium is quite high, and there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the duration of the conflict, the closure status of the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions in oil transit.