02.09.2026 11:51
Following the sharp decline in spot gold and gram gold, markets have locked onto the US Non-Farm Payrolls data to be released on Friday, September 4. While a stronger-than-expected employment report is expected to reinforce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and increase pressure on gold, a weak figure is noted to potentially ease bond yields and pave the way for a recovery in gold.
Gold prices, which hit record highs last week, retreated to their lowest level in three weeks on the morning of September 2. While the 9.5% decline in spot gold was also reflected in gram gold, markets are focused on the critical Fed interest rate decision in September.
The record rally at the end of August in the markets has given way to intense selling pressure. Spot gold, which climbed to $4,755 last week and saw its highest level in three months, continued its decline on the morning of September 2. In early trading, spot gold pulled back to $4,139, losing about 9.5% in value since its peak.
OIL AND INFLATION CONCERNS DESTROY THE SAFE HAVEN
While rising tensions between the US and Iran in the Middle East would normally highlight gold as a "safe haven," this time the process worked in reverse. With risks to the Strait of Hormuz pushing Brent oil above $95, inflation concerns in the US were reignited. As inflationary pressures increased, US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.82%, their highest level in the last 3 years, while the Dollar Index rose above the 100 level. Both rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of gold, which offers no interest yield, in the eyes of investors.
EYES ON FRIDAY'S DATA RELEASE
Following hawkish statements from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and Board Member Michael Barr, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September surged to 67% from last week's 30% levels. While markets are focused on today's US ADP private sector employment data and the Fed's Beige Book report, they are also awaiting the US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday, September 4, which is the most critical turning point. A strong data point coming in above expectations could increase rate pressure and trigger a new wave of selling in gold.
GRAM GOLD DROPS BY 200 LIRAS IN A DAY
The technical breakdown in spot gold also directly impacted the domestic market. As the Dollar/TL exchange rate remained relatively flat at the 48.30 level, the decline in the spot price was fully reflected in gram gold. Gram gold, which had reached 6,880 liras the previous morning, lost nearly 200 liras in a single day, falling to the 6,700 lira level.
September 2 Current Market Figures:
- Gram Gold: 6,708 TL
- Quarter Gold: 10,973 TL
- Republic Gold: 43,692 TL
- Spot Gold: $4,139
In technical analysis, the $4,300 and $4,200 levels in spot gold are being monitored as significant supports, while it is noted that the $4,530 resistance, where the 200-day moving average is located, needs to be exceeded for a recovery.