01.06.2026 12:31
SGK Chief Expert İsa Karakaş stated that the 4-month inflation difference for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees has been finalized at 14.64% and may reach 18.58% in July, while civil servants and retired civil servants will be crushed under inflation at 10.51% due to collective bargaining agreements, and that the expectation of a flat 22,000 TL raise in the corridors has hit the strict braking measures of the economic administration.
Millions of employees and retirees are keeping a close eye on the salary increase rates to be made in July. To clarify the salary hike, only May inflation data to be announced by TÜİK this week and June inflation data to be announced at the beginning of July remain. SGK Chief Expert İsa Karakaş, in his article in Türkiye Newspaper, analyzed the July outlook in light of Central Bank expectations and finalized data.
4-MONTH FINALIZED FIGURE 14.64%
Noting that with TÜİK's January (2.96%), February (4.84%), March (1.94%), and April (4.18%) data, the 4-month cumulative inflation has reached exactly 14.64%, İsa Karakaş stated: "As of today, the 4-month inflation difference has been finalized at 14.64%. This rate is the net salary update that every SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree will directly pocket. However, unfortunately, the same fair figure is not applicable for civil servants and retired civil servants."
DANGER OF A RAISE BELOW INFLATION
Emphasizing that due to the current collective bargaining agreement provisions, the 4-month update figure for civil servants and retired civil servants has been finalized at only 10.51% for now, Karakaş pointed to the painful situation: "Civil servants and their retirees face an update that is even 4.13% below TÜİK inflation. This situation is extremely painful and unacceptable, especially for retired civil servants. In the previous collective bargaining period, they were squeezed below the official inflation rate three times in a row. Looking at statistics, it is clearly observed that over the last 23 years, the improvement in retired civil servants' salaries has lagged behind all other retiree groups."
WHO WILL GET WHAT RAISE IN JULY?
Making a cumulative calculation based on the May (1.89%) and June (1.52%) inflation expectations from the Central Bank Market Participants Survey, Karakaş also shared the final raise estimate for July:
- Estimated Raise Rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur Retirees: 18.58%
FLAT RAISE MAY FALL THROUGH
Also conveying the latest situation in Ankara backroom talks, İsa Karakaş wrote that the promise of a flat raise for retired civil servants is once again in danger of falling through due to the strict brake measures by the economic administration. Karakaş summarized the cold atmosphere in the backrooms with these words: "The flat increase of 8,077 TL in July 2023 has now exceeded 22,000 TL as of today with cumulative calculations. If this flat raise promise had been fulfilled on time, the lowest retired civil servant's salary would have approached 50,000 TL even before the July raise is added. With the July update, this amount would easily exceed 57,000 TL. However, the winds blowing from Ankara backrooms are unfortunately quite cold."