17.10.2025 11:58
In the survey of market participants announced by the Central Bank, the year-end CPI expectation rose from 29.86% to 31.77%. The year-end dollar/TL forecast decreased to 43.56 TL. Financial expert İris Cibre commented on the expectation survey, stating, "What I expected happened in the market participants survey. Inflation expectations have deteriorated."
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has published the results of the Market Participants Survey for the month of October. The market's year-end forecasts for the dollar, inflation, growth, and interest rates have been revealed.
The year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation of the participants increased from 29.86% in the previous survey period to 31.77% in this survey period.
The CPI expectation for 12 months later decreased from 22.25% to 23.26%. The CPI expectation for 24 months later, however, increased from 16.78% to 17.36%.
DOLLAR/TRY FORECAST DECLINED
The year-end dollar/TRY expectation decreased from 43.85 TRY in the previous survey period to 43.56 TRY in this survey period.
The foreign exchange rate expectation for 12 months later was 48.96 TRY in the previous survey period and is now 49.75 TRY in this survey period.
EXPECTATION OF INTEREST RATE DECREASE
For the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the CBRT's policy interest rate expectation in this survey period was 39%. This indicates a 150 basis point reduction from the current policy rate of 40.5%. The interest rate expectation for the second meeting in the survey was 37.66%, and for the third meeting, it was 36.17%. The interest rate forecast for 12 months later was determined to be 28.26%.
GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
The GDP growth expectation for 2025 among participants was 3.2% in the previous survey period and is now 3.3% in this survey period.
The GDP growth expectation for 2026 was 3.7% in the previous survey period and is now 3.8% in this survey period.
WHO PARTICIPATES IN THE SURVEY?
The Market Participants Survey is conducted with 72 participants, consisting of 54 from the financial sector and 18 from the real sector, each month.
ATTENTION-GRABBING COMMENT FROM A FINANCE EXPERT
Finance expert Iris Cibre commented on the expectation survey, stating, "What I expected happened in the market participants survey. Inflation expectations have deteriorated. The year-end expectation increased by nearly 2 points to 31.77%, and the 12-month expectation also rose by 1 point to 23.26%. Therefore, expectations for interest rate cuts have also narrowed significantly. A total of 250 basis points of cuts are expected this year, and it is anticipated that it could only drop to 28% in 2026. I expect inflation to be around 2.8-3% this month. In other words, the deterioration in expectations will continue," she said.