04.03.2026 23:31
It was reported that bettors in the U.S. placed $54 million in bets on the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the bets were later suspended. According to claims in the U.S. press, an anonymous investor placed two bets totaling $3,460 that Khamenei would step down from leadership by April 1, and in return, earned more than $63,000.
It was reported that some investors in the U.S. placed bets on the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei through the prediction market platform "Kalshi."
AN INVESTOR EARNED MORE THAN $63,000
In a report by the Washington Post (WP), it was stated, "Investors on the prediction market site Kalshi believed they had made a fortune by betting on the death of the Iranian leader. The emerging scandal highlighted the dystopian rise of gambling on real-world events."
It was noted that one investor, who remained anonymous, placed two bets totaling $3,460 that Khamenei would step down by April 1, and in return, earned more than $63,000.
THE TOTAL BETTING VOLUME IS $54 MILLION
However, shortly thereafter, all transactions involving the Khamenei scenario were suspended on the grounds that they were "directly related to the death of a person," and the total $54 million in betting transactions created in this context was frozen.
Senator Chris Murphy criticized the bet, stating, "This is the pinnacle of American commercial immorality. People should not want others to die because they are betting."
SIMILAR INCIDENTS HAVE OCCURRED BEFORE
Previously, the analysis firm Bubblemaps had revealed that six individuals who won $1.2 million by betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on February 28 on the prediction market platform Polymarket, where Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of former President Donald Trump, is a board member, were "insiders."
Senator Murphy had expressed in a post that these transactions showed "people around Trump profiting from war and death." Additionally, it was reported that an official from the Pentagon's cyber policy unit won $400,000 from a betting game he played on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.