Israel goes to the polls in hours! What do the polls say, here is the latest situation

29.10.2026 23:11

According to the latest polls published ahead of the general elections to be held in Israel tomorrow, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing religious coalition nor the opposition led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot can reach the 61 seats needed to form a government. In mainstream polls, Eisenkot’s party Yashar comes first, and the results are assessed to bring scenarios of renewed elections, an Eisenkot government, and a national unity government onto the agenda.

Ahead of the elections to be held in Israel on October 27, public opinion polls indicate that the country may face a new political deadlock. Netanyahu’s rivals include figures such as Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid.

WHO ARE NETANYAHU’S RIVALS?

Netanyahu’s strongest rival is the Yashar Party founded by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot advocates opening a state inquiry into the October 7 attack and conscripting ultra-Orthodox youth into mandatory military service.

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are running on a joint list called B’Yachad (Together). The opposition bloc also includes the Democrats led by Yair Golan and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu Party. Netanyahu’s bloc includes, alongside Likud, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism Party, and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.

EISENKOT AHEAD IN LATEST POLLS

In the latest polls published on October 23 by Israel’s three major television channels, Eisenkot’s Yashar Party ranked first with 22-23 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud Party stood at 19-21, and Bennett and Lapid’s B’Yachad list at 14-15 seats.

According to Channel 12’s poll, Yashar wins 23 seats, Likud 21, B’Yachad 15, the Democrats 10, the Joint List 9, Yisrael Beytenu 8, Otzma Yehudit 8, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Religious Zionism 6, and Raam 5. Polls by Channel 13 and the public broadcaster Kan produced similar results. In the poll conducted by Kantar for Israel Hayom, Yashar stood at 23 seats and Likud at 21.

THE SITUATION OF THE BLOCS

According to mainstream polls, the opposition bloc reaches 52-56 seats, while the bloc led by Netanyahu remains at 50 seats. Raam, which represents Palestinian citizens of Israel, and the Joint List, made up of Hadash, Taal, and Balad, are expected to win a total of 14-16 seats. In Kan’s poll, Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists and Economy Party enters the Knesset with 4 seats, while in other polls it remains below the 3.25 percent threshold.

Polls by the right-leaning Channel 14 and i24NEWS, however, give Netanyahu’s bloc 61 seats. The US-based Jewish Insider noted that these polls fall outside the general trend, but recalled that Direct Polls, the company that conducted them, made the most accurate prediction in the previous election.

WHO IS THE MOST SUITABLE NAME FOR PRIME MINISTER?

In Channel 12’s final pre-election poll, participants were asked who was more suitable for the premiership. In the comparison between Eisenkot and Netanyahu, 44 percent of participants found Eisenkot more suitable and 38 percent found Netanyahu more suitable. Fourteen percent of participants considered neither name suitable, while 4 percent said they had no opinion.

In the comparison between Netanyahu and Bennett, the two figures tied at 39 percent. In the comparison between Netanyahu and Liberman, Netanyahu received 40 percent and Liberman 28 percent.

In the poll conducted by Lazar Research for the Maariv newspaper on October 14-15, Eisenkot also placed ahead of Netanyahu with 48 percent to Netanyahu’s 41 percent. In the same poll, Netanyahu and Bennett tied at 43 percent. The majority of poll participants stated that if the election does not produce a clear result, they would prefer a national unity government rather than a new election. The proportion of those who preferred a new election remained at 27 percent.

THE POSSIBILITY OF REPEATING THE ELECTION

If both blocs fail to reach a sufficient majority as the polls indicate and follow the course they promised in their campaigns, new elections are seen as the most likely possibility. In Israel, which went to the polls five times in four years between 2019 and 2022, it is assessed that a similar picture could emerge again. According to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, in the event of a deadlock, 35 percent of Israeli Jews and 46 percent of Arabs prefer new elections.

After the elections, President Isaac Herzog will meet with party leaders and will likely task the leader of the party that comes first with forming the government. If the leader who receives the task cannot form a government within 6 weeks, including extensions, a second leader will be given 4 weeks. If that leader also fails, a coalition is expected to be formed within 3 weeks with the signatures of 61 MKs. If a government still cannot be formed, the Knesset will be dissolved and elections will be held again within 3 months.

In this scenario, Netanyahu, who is criticized for not wanting to give up his seat because of corruption cases, will effectively continue in office and lead the country to new elections in the first half of 2027. There are comments that Netanyahu may pursue harsher policies during this process and could raise tensions in the region.

THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EISENKOT GOVERNMENT

While Netanyahu placed the claim that “the opposition bloc will form a coalition with Arab parties” at the center of his campaign, Likud used the slogan “Either the right or Palestine” throughout the campaign. Eisenkot, meanwhile, moved into a defensive position by saying that he would not act together with Arab parties and that a Palestinian state would not be established during his government. Some right-wing politicians in the opposition bloc, especially Liberman, also clearly stated that they would not sit at the same table as Palestinians.

Raam leader Mansour Abbas announced that he was open to joining the coalition, as in 2021. However, polls indicate that Raam’s support may not be enough. The Joint List, meanwhile, left the door open by stating that it could provide external support to bring down a “far-right government.” Even if this possibility seems difficult to realize if Eisenkot and his allies maintain their positions, it is assessed that the Arab parties will continue to hold a key position in the Knesset.

NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT SCENARIO

The idea of a “national unity government,” which Netanyahu raised in July 2026 and which would include parties from both the government and the opposition, became the most discussed scenario of recent days. The Israeli press reported that President Herzog also supports Netanyahu and Eisenkot forming a joint government in order to prevent a picture similar to the 3 elections in 11 months in 2019-2020.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir also claims that Netanyahu is trying to sideline him and is seeking a national unity government. Although Netanyahu and Eisenkot say they do not aim for such a government, this possibility is not ruled out.

According to the Israeli press, in a possible Netanyahu-Eisenkot government, Ben-Gvir, who has drawn international reaction for his practices toward Palestinians, will not be included, while Smotrich’s situation is uncertain.

WHAT AWAITS THE PALESTINIANS?

The rhetoric of politicians on both the ruling and opposition sides indicates that there will be no significant change in policy toward the Palestinians after the election. It is assessed that if the opposition forms a government, the pressure on the Palestinians may ease to some extent, but it will continue with different styles and tools. If another far-right government is formed, however, attacks and pressure are expected to increase.