26.08.2026 10:30
The gold spot price hit a record $4,697 in August, marking its fastest monthly rise since September 1999 with a premium of 15%. Saxo Bank Commodity Strategist Ole Hansen warned about the market, buoyed by ETF inflows and hedge fund demand, noting that a sharp correction could occur due to hawkish Fed messages, a recovering dollar, and profit-taking before the $4,770 resistance level.
Gold in global markets is poised to post its strongest monthly performance since September 1999. In August, the ounce price gained 15% and hit a peak of $4,697, while commodity strategist Ole Hansen warned investors that "vertical rallies carry the risk of sharp corrections."
Although the yellow metal experienced a "breather" over the last two trading sessions, global developments and rising demand have pushed prices to record levels. As of 06:00 CET on August 26, spot gold was trading at $4,655, continuing its historic upward trend.
FASTEST MONTHLY RISE IN 27 YEARS
With the sharp acceleration in markets, the standout data from gold's record move that defined August are as follows:
- ETF and Fund Demand: Global gold ETF holdings have increased by approximately 60 tons since the start of the month, recording the strongest monthly inflow since September 2025.
- Hedge Fund Move: Hedge funds raised their net long positions in gold futures to the highest level in the last 11 months.
- Historic Premium: The 15% premium reached by spot gold this month is the fastest monthly rise since the 18% increase seen in September 1999.
- Saxo Bank Commodity Strategist Ole Hansen emphasized that these developments prove how quickly political, fiscal, and financial concerns, along with technical breakouts, can boost demand for bullion.
WARNING AGAINST "SHARP CORRECTION" RISK
Pointing out that rapid rises trigger hasty decisions in the market, Ole Hansen noted that vertical movements bring the risk of sharp declines when momentum fades. Stating that a regular recovery is essential for the market to progress more healthily, Hansen listed the key risk factors threatening the market as follows:
- Strengthening Dollar: A sustained dollar recovery could eliminate a significant support for gold.
- Fed and Jackson Hole: Hawkish messages from the Jackson Hole meeting or reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts could trigger profit-taking.
- Geopolitical Improvement: A decline in regional and global risks could weaken safe-haven demand.
- Fiscal Concerns and Speculation: Reduced fiscal concerns in the U.S. and high speculative positions could lead to deep corrections even with a slight shift in the macro environment.
CRITICAL LEVELS IN SPOT GOLD
Ole Hansen, outlining technical levels, shared the resistance and support points that gold investors should follow:
- Resistance Level: $4,770 (50% retracement level of the January-June correction and the local peak from May).
- First Support: $4,519 (200-day moving average).
- Second Support: $4,410 level.