05.09.2026 14:40
With the two-month inflation data announced by TUIK, the initial rate of 3.65% for the raises of retirees and civil servants has been finalized. While awaiting the data for the remaining 4 months, the lowest retiree pension, currently applied as 23,552 TL, is expected to rise to a band of 26,000 TL to 27,000 TL as of January 2027, through legal regulations.
With TÜİK announcing the July and August inflation data, the first cumulative table for the January 2027 civil servant and retiree raise rate was finalized at 3.65%. While awaiting the remaining 4-month data, possible scenarios and forecasts for the lowest retiree pension have become clearer.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) data, the consumer price index increased by 1.78% in July and 1.84% in August. With these results, the two-month cumulative inflation rate stood at 3.65%. With the announced figures, the initial picture regarding the raise rates for SSK, Bağ-Kur, civil servants, and retired civil servants at the beginning of the year has emerged.
FIRST RAISE FINALIZED FOR SSK AND BAĞ-KUR RETIREES
For SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, who receive a raise equal to the actual 6-month inflation rate, an increase of 3.65% over the first two months has now been finalized. SGK Expert Murat Bal, who evaluated the process, stated that once the data for September, October, November, and December is completed, it is highly likely that the January 2027 raise rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will take shape in the 8% to 12% range.
INFLATION DIFFERENCE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND RETIRED CIVIL SERVANTS
The raise rates for civil servants and retired civil servants are calculated in line with collective bargaining provisions:
- 2026 Second Half Collective Bargaining Raise: 7%
- 2027 First Half Guaranteed Raise: 5% + Inflation Difference
- Current Inflation Difference Status: 0%
For an inflation difference to be provided to civil servants and retired civil servants, the total 6-month inflation must exceed the 7% threshold set for the second half of 2026. Since the two-month rate of 3.65% has not yet reached this level, no difference has occurred for now. According to current expectations, it is anticipated that the raise rate for civil servants and retired civil servants will remain in the 7% to 9% range.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE LOWEST RETIREE PENSION
The estimated levels of the lowest retiree pension, currently applied as 23,552 TL, based on legal regulations and probable raise rates to be made in January 2027, are calculated as follows:
- If 8% Raise is Calculated: 25,436 TL
- If 10% Raise is Calculated: 25,907 TL
- If 12% Raise is Calculated: 26,376 TL
Considering current data and floor pension regulations, the lowest retiree pension is expected to be raised to the 26,000 TL to 27,000 TL band in the new year. The exact raise rates will become clear with the announcement of the inflation data for the last 4 months.